CNN Fear & Greed Sentiment Analysis 2026-09-25

CNN Fear & Greed Sentiment Analysis — 2026-09-25

Run Date: 2026-09-25 (Friday, Beijing Time / UTC+8) Market Data As Of: 2026-09-24 (Thursday, US Eastern close) Data Sources: CNN Fear & Greed scripts + crisis_signals.py + FRED

New Changes and Carry-Forward Signals

Key carry-forward signal: Stock price strength and breadth have been in Extreme Fear (score=0) for multiple consecutive days, while credit (junk bond spread 1.22%, HY OAS 2.73%) remains in Greed. This divergence persisted unchanged this period.

Composite Index Trend

Current: 36.11 — Fear

Last 15 trading sessions:

Statistical Summary:

• In-sample minimum: 5.17 (2025-11-20, Extreme Fear extreme)
• Last 10 sessions trend: Upward (32.7 → 36.1, +3.4 pts)
• Consecutive fear days: 13 (as of 2026-09-24) | Recovered ~7.8 pts from one week ago (28.29), still ~18.9 pts below one month ago (54.97)

Since breaking below Neutral on Sep 8, the market has remained in Fear territory, with only a brief return to Neutral on Sep 3-4. Mid-late September saw Extreme Fear (bottoming in the ~8-20 range), followed by gradual recovery to current Fear levels.

Seven Sub-Indicator Table

Sub-indicators cover the core F&G七大 factors. Scores are the script’s normalized 0-100 values; ratings are bound to score thresholds.

Rating Key:

• Score ≤ 15 → Extreme Fear; 15-25 → Fear; 25-40 → Fear; 40-60 → Neutral; 60-75 → Greed; ≥ 75 → Extreme Greed
• VIX raw 15.67 is at the lower-mid of historical range, rated Neutral; no additional threshold overlay applied
• Stock price strength/breadth score=0 indicates extremely compressed market breadth

Indicator Divergence: Possible Explanations and Counter-Evidence

Core Divergence: Stock-side Extreme Fear vs. Credit-side Greed

1. Stock Breadth Extreme Fear (score=0): Only ~406 SP500 constituents closed up. This reflects depth concentrated in specific weight stocks (tech/AI sector leadership in the selloff), not a broad market sell-off.

   • Counter-evidence: Options PCR at 0.71 is neutral, with no panic Put accumulation; VIX at 15.67 is also neutral. In a systemic selloff, PCR typically exceeds 1.0 and VIX exceeds 20.

2. Junk Bond Demand Greed (score=63): HY OAS at just 2.73%, credit spreads extremely compressed. Fixed income markets still price default risk optimistically.

   • Explanation: Credit and equity market sentiment have a transmission lag. Corporate bond spreads reflect medium-term solvency expectations, not short-term price volatility. If corporate earnings show no material deterioration, credit can remain tightly stable.
   • Counter-evidence: Margin debt at ~$1.304T near all-time high (Apr 2026); ETF net inflows YTD $856B at record levels – leveraged capital remains in the market.

3. VIX Neutral (15.67): The most striking contradiction with stock-side Extreme Fear. Typically Extreme Fear coincides with VIX > 20-25.

   • Explanation: VIX measures 30-day implied volatility. If the market views this pullback as structural/sector rotation rather than systemic risk, VIX can stay low. This is a characteristic of a “slow bleed” rather than a “flash crash.”

Credit / Rates / Leverage Cross-Validation

Cross-Validation Conclusion:

Credit markets (HY/IG OAS) are fully normal; the short-end curve has exited inversion (10Y-2Y back to +0.31%), which is the largest difference from the typical “stocks and bonds both selling off” environment of 2022-2023. However, margin debt and ETF inflows are at historical extremes, suggesting fragility from leverage and crowded positioning.

Note: Margin debt is FINRA monthly data (latest Apr 2026), approximately 5 months stale. ETF inflows are YTD cumulative, not monthly change. Both are lagging indicators.

Conditions for Risk Upgrade or De-escalation

Risk Upgrade Signals (watch for):

• VIX breaks above 20 from current 15.67 (first confirmation of vol escalation)
• HY OAS breaks above 3% (watch) or 5% (panic) from current 2.73%
• Stock breadth deteriorates further from ~406 advancing issues to <300
• Margin debt shows notable month-over-month decline (de-leveraging signal)
• 10Y-2Y inverts back into negative territory

Risk De-escalation Signals (already partially present):

• Composite index recovers from 36 to 40+ (return to Neutral threshold)
• Stock price strength turns positive from -5.5%
• VIX falls below 15
• PCR drops below 0.6 (Put demand recedes)

Data Limitations

1. Sub-indicator raw values not fully verified: Stock breadth raw value of 406.31 (advancing issues) does not specify the calculation benchmark date; the script’s internal methodology is a black box.
2. Margin debt is stale: FINRA data as of Apr 2026, ~5 months old, cannot reflect recent de-leveraging changes.
3. CNN F&G source: The composite index is computed by the script aggregating multiple data sources, not a CNN website real-time embed. There may be a time lag vs. CNN’s displayed value.
4. VIX vs. stock-side divergence: The script’s VIX scoring logic (15.67 → score=50) may not fully capture the hidden risk of “low vol + weak prices.” This is a limitation of the scoring methodology.
5. No sector-level data: Breadth is SP500 aggregate; unable to identify leading/lagging sectors.