CNN Fear & Greed Sentiment Analysis 2026-09-13

Data Cutoff and Update Status

Run date: September 13 (Sunday, US market holiday). All market data carried forward from September 11 close.

Changes This Session and Status Continuation

• Composite Index 33.34: +0.23 from prior close of 33.11, essentially flat. Sept 10 and 11 values are identical (33.34), reflecting no sub-indicator changes across those two sessions.
• 10-day trend: Fell from 49.20 on Aug 31 to 33.34, a decline of 15.86 points, directionally clear downward.
• Week-over-week: 45.23 → 33.34, -11.89 points, dropping from Neutral into Fear.
• Month-over-month: 60.09 → 33.34, -26.74 points, one month prior still in Greed territory.
• Consecutive fear days: 5 (9/7–9/11). Broke below 40 on 9/7 from Neutral, no interruption since.
• Sample minimum: 5.17 (2025-11-19). Current 33.34 remains well above that extreme.

Composite Index Trend

![](/charts/fng-trend-2026-09-13.png)

Sentiment fell sharply from sustained Greed (60–71 range) in late August, cliffing below 39 on Sept 7. Over the subsequent 5 sessions, it oscillated narrowly in the 28–40 range with a slow lower bias but no acceleration. Current 33.34 sits in the lower portion of the two-month range but remains significantly distant from the historical low (5.17).

Seven Sub-Indicators Table

Rating-to-score mapping: Extreme Fear (<15) / Fear (15–35) / Neutral (35–55) / Greed (55–85) / Extreme Greed (>85).

Key Observations

1. Stock Price Strength = 5.0 is among the most extreme sub-indicator readings in the dataset. Over 5 sessions it worsened from -0.92 to -2.34, indicating deepening standardized downside across intraday declines.
2. Stock Price Breadth = 12.6 also extreme fear. Advancing issues fell from 945 on 9/7 to 808 on 9/11, a 14.4% shrinkage—breadth contraction is clear.
3. Junk Bond Demand = 68.0 (Greed) is the sole counter-directional indicator. HY OAS raw ~1.22% (equivalent to 2.70% in crisis signals including benchmark), credit markets show no panic.
4. VIX ~15.84 sits in Neutral territory, well below the 20 “unease” threshold and 30 “panic” threshold. Volatility itself has not escalated.
5. Put/Call Ratio maintains ~0.75 elevated levels (>0.6 typically signals fear), but the 5-day change is minimal. Options market sentiment has “solidified” in fear without further deterioration.

![](/charts/fng-radar-2026-09-13.png)

Indicator Divergences: Possible Explanations and Counter-Evidence

Divergence 1: Extreme Equity Fear vs. Credit Market Greed

Phenomenon: Price Strength (5.0), Price Breadth (12.6) both extreme fear, yet Junk Bond Demand (68.0) in Greed, HY OAS only 2.70%.

Explanation: Equity markets pricing in short-term risk events (the consecutive declines in early September), but bond investors are not following—HY spreads are not widening, suggesting no default-surge expectation at the credit level. Historically, equity-credit divergence often appears in “event-driven” sell-offs rather than fundamental deterioration scenarios.

Counter-evidence needed: If HY OAS begins widening rapidly from 2.70% to 3.5%+, credit markets also signal alarm, divergence ends, risk materially escalates.

Divergence 2: Extreme Breadth/Strength vs. Neutral VIX

Phenomenon: Individual stock strength and breadth extremely恶化, yet VIX only 15.84, well below levels seen during recent extreme fear episodes (17–18 also produced extreme fear ratings).

Explanation: VIX measures S&P 500 index option implied volatility, heavily weighted by large caps. Breadth contraction concentrates in small/mid caps—the equal-weight SP125 tracks SP500 closely but internal divergence widens. VIX Neutral means index-level volatility hasn’t risen, but individual stock dispersion has intensified.

Counter-evidence needed: VIX breaks 20 and holds, volatility upgrades from Neutral to Unease, resonating with breadth deterioration.

Divergence 3: Record Margin Debt vs. Fear Sentiment

Phenomenon: FINRA margin debt $1.304T (2026-04), at or near all-time highs, yet market has been fearful for 5 consecutive sessions.

Explanation: High margin debt typically signals “crowded longs” that should trigger margin call spirals during downturns. But this decline has not produced VIX spikes or liquidity crisis signals, suggesting either margin positions haven’t triggered forced liquidation, or have already been partially digested by prior adjustments.

Counter-evidence needed: VIX suddenly jumps to 30+ against record margin debt levels, indicating leverage unwinding may be accelerating.

![](/charts/fng-sub-trends-2026-09-13.png)

Credit / Rate / Leverage Cross-Validation

Credit side (🟢): HY OAS at 2.70% is well below the 3% warning line; IG OAS at 0.80% is also healthy. 10Y-2Y turned positive at +0.33%, short-end inversion resolved—an important change from the “fear” period in August. However, 10Y-30Y remains at -0.42%, long-end curve still inverted.

Leverage side (🔴): Margin debt, IPO count, and ETF inflows all in “overheated” territory. These data contradict the fear sentiment—typically leverage should be contracting during fear cycles. If these leveraged positions remain unadjusted, current fear may be only the beginning of an adjustment; if partially digested, risk may already be priced in.

Conditions for Risk Escalation or Relief

Risk Escalation Signals (elevate vigilance if any appear)

1. HY OAS breaks 3.5%: Credit spreads move from Normal to Warning, resonating with equity fear
2. VIX breaks 20: Volatility upgrades from Neutral to Unease
3. Consecutive fear days > 15: History shows extended fear beyond two weeks increases probability of dropping into Extreme Fear
4. 10Y-2Y re-inverts: Current +0.33% dropping negative reinforces recession signals
5. Margin debt sharply declines: Monthly data showing clear decrease may signal margin call spiral has begun

Risk Relief Signals (consider sentiment bottoming if any appear)

1. Composite index returns to 45+: Back above Neutral
2. Stock Price Breadth recovers to 900+: Breadth repair confirmed
3. Junk Bond Demand holds 65+ with HY OAS < 3%: Credit continues to support risk assets
4. 3+ consecutive Neutral/Greed days: Sentiment cycle reversal confirmed

Data Limitations

• Margin Debt only updated through 2026-04 (FINRA monthly release lags ~5 months), cannot reflect May–September changes.
• IPO/ETF Flows are YTD cumulative values, cannot distinguish recent changes.
• VIX sub-indicator score=50 (Neutral) conflicts with VIX raw 15.84’s rating mapping—by CNN standards 15.84 should lean Fear, but the script outputs Neutral. This is a script threshold setting issue, not a data error.
• Market Momentum raw values are absolute levels (SPX ~7657), not returns or scores; the “extreme greed” rating comes from the script’s internal algorithm, not fully congruent with the FNG composite scoring system.
• No new trading day data this session; all sub-indicators identical to September 10 values.