CNN Fear & Greed Sentiment Analysis 2026-09-07

Composite Index Overview

• Latest score: 41.86 — Fear
• Data as of: 9/4 (Friday) US close (today 9/7 is US Labor Day; markets closed, no new CNN F&G update)
• Previous close (revised basis): 43.91 — Fear (9/3)
• Daily change (revised basis): -2.05 pts
• Weekly change: -10.45 pts (vs 52.31 on 8/28)
• Monthly change: -18.11 pts (vs CNN 1-month baseline 59.97)
• Yearly change: -19.31 pts (vs CNN 1-year baseline 61.17)

⚠️ Holiday note: September 7, 2026 (Monday) is the US Labor Day holiday; equity markets are closed. CNN F&G data is still the Friday 9/4 close, identical to the 9/5 report. This is a holiday snapshot — no new F&G readings; the focus is on verifying and correcting the crash-indicator dashboard (see the margin debt correction below). Next observation point: the 9/8 (Tuesday) close.

Last 10 Trading Days Trend

(Note: 9/2-9/3 are CNN’s retroactively revised values after the junk-bond algorithm revision; the API’s previous_close field is pre-revision and has been deprecated.)

Trend direction: after topping at 66.63 on 8/13, the index oscillated in a 53-57 band for 7 sessions (8/20-8/28), broke to 47.51 on 8/31, crashed -16.6 pts to 30.91 on 9/1 (lowest since 4/8), then repaired rapidly over 9/2-9/4 to 41.86 (+10.95 pts, +35.4%), with 9/3 touching 43.91 before a small pullback on 9/4. The one-day holiday does not change the shape: the index sits at the upper edge of the Fear zone, 3.1 pts below the 45 neutral line, with 35 and 30.91 as the first/second support bands below.

Sub-Indicator Scan

1. Market Momentum: 36.6 — Fear

   • Raw: S&P 500 @ 7,718.60 (9/4), prior 7,747.71 (9/3), -29.11 (-0.38%)
   • Direction: down (42.6 → 36.6, -6.0), giving back more than half of the 9/3 rebound
   • Read: momentum holds at 36.6 after the 9/4 dip, ~-1.0% below the 8/13 high of 7,798.99. The index’s stabilization leans on heavyweight stocks; rebound quality remains in question

2. Stock Price Strength: 12.6 — Extreme Fear ⚠️ weakest of all

   • Raw: -0.7936 (% of stocks near 52-week highs, 9/4), prior -0.6328 (9/3)
   • Direction: still deteriorating (-0.161), 5th consecutive session, worst level of 2026
   • Read: the share of stocks breaking down from 52-week highs keeps expanding; internals are still crumbling. This is the first quality test of any rebound — only a recovery above -0.5 would suggest breadth repair

3. Stock Price Breadth: 46.4 — Neutral

   • Raw: 955.93 (new highs minus new lows, 9/4), prior 962.74 (9/3)
   • Direction: slightly down (-6.81), 2nd consecutive decline
   • Read: the new-high/new-low spread remains positive but has not followed the 9/2-9/3 composite repair. The gap vs. Strength (12.6) persists: gains are concentrated in top weights while underlying stocks weaken broadly

4. Put/Call Options: 45.2 — Neutral

   • Raw: 0.7373 (P/C ratio, 9/4), prior 0.7432 (9/3)
   • Direction: slightly lower (-0.006), back into neutral
   • Read: put protection buying eased modestly from the 9/3 high; options-side hedging pressure eased marginally. Still, 0.73+ remains the high zone since late July — hedgers have not meaningfully exited

5. Market Volatility (VIX): 50 — Neutral

   • Raw: 14.53 (9/4), prior 14.32 (9/3)
   • Direction: up slightly (+0.21), 4th consecutive session in the 14.3-14.9 ultra-low plateau
   • Read: VIX sits near the year’s lows; tail risk remains under-priced. A -0.38% index move only lifted VIX +1.5% — if the selloff resumes, VIX has room to spike. A break above the 14.5 platform would be an early confirmation of deteriorating risk appetite

6. Junk Bond Demand: 76.2 — Extreme Greed ⚠️ violent flip (partly revision noise)

   • Raw: 1.2303 (HY/IG spread ratio, 9/4), prior 1.3470 (9/3)
   • Direction: spread ratio narrowed sharply (-0.117, -8.7%); score flipped from 12.2 (Extreme Fear) to 76.2 (Extreme Greed)
   • Read: the real narrowing of the spread ratio is genuine credit improvement, but a large part of the +64-pt score jump comes from CNN’s junk-bond algorithm revision. FRED HY OAS (2.65%, 9/3) barely moved — the two calibers diverge; do not extrapolate “Extreme Greed 76.2” into broad credit warmth

7. Safe Haven Demand: 26.0 — Fear ⚠️ sharp drop

   • Raw: 0.1714 (stocks vs. bonds 20-day excess return, 9/4), prior 0.9931 (9/3)
   • Direction: plunged (-0.82), largest one-day drop in recent weeks
   • Read: the 20-day stock-vs-bond excess return collapsed toward 0.17 as money flowed back into bonds. Partly a rolling-window effect (the 9/3 reading still carried the lagged contribution of mid-August equity strength), but a slide below zero would confirm “stocks underperforming bonds” — a deepening risk-off signal

Structural Contradictions

Core structure: the credit-firming vs. internals-crumbling split persists (Junk Bond 76.2 vs. Strength 12.6, 63.6-pt gap)

Holiday, no new data. Distribution unchanged: 1 Extreme Greed (Junk Bond 76.2), 1 Extreme Fear (Strength 12.6), 2 Fear (Safe Haven 26.0, Momentum 36.6), 3 Neutral (P/C 45.2, Breadth 46.4, VIX 50.0).

• Junk Bond 76.2 (Extreme Greed) vs. Strength 12.6 (Extreme Fear) — the biggest fault line: credit spreads narrowed sharply and CNN flipped to Extreme Greed, while the % of stocks near 52-week highs sits at a 2026 low. The two extremes point in opposite directions. Historically credit leads equity breadth by weeks — if credit warmth persists, internals should stabilize with a lag; but the mere -1bp move in FRED HY OAS suggests part of the 9/4 narrowing is algorithm noise, and the real improvement is limited
• Safe Haven 26.0 vs. Junk Bond 76.2 — an intra-bond contradiction: money is buying Treasuries (stock excess return collapsed to 0.17) while credit spreads narrow — Treasury-safe-haven and credit-chasing coexist. Risk-off is concentrated in the equity/rates complex; credit has not yet priced risk. A catch-up widening in credit would confirm equity weakness; sustained narrowing would argue the 9/1 crash was an equity-internal deleveraging rather than systemic risk-off
• Strength 12.6 vs. Breadth 46.4: the new-high/new-low spread stays positive (955.93) while the 52-week-high proximity measure is deeply negative — gains concentrate in top weights; rebound breadth is thin
• VIX 50 (14.53) vs. Strength 12.6: ultra-low volatility coexists with collapsing internals; downside is under-priced. A VIX break above 14.5 would be an early confirmation of deteriorating risk appetite

Trend Assessment

• Zone: upper edge of Fear (25-45), 41.86 at 9/4 close; 3.1 pts below the 45 neutral line, 16.9 pts above the Extreme Fear line (25). +10.95 pts (+35.4%) off the 9/1 low of 30.91 over three sessions
• Direction: top on 8/13 → 53-57 band for 7 sessions → break on 8/31 → crash on 9/1 (30.91) → three-day rapid repair to 41.86. Shape: “slow decline → sudden crash → three-day fast repair,” now consolidating at the upper edge of Fear. The 45 neutral line is the key watershed — a break confirms the repair; failure risks a retest of 35-30.91
• Key things to watch (next update: 9/8 US close):
  • Whether 45 is broken: the 9/3 high of 43.91 is only 1.1 pts away; the 9/4 pullback shows weak upside follow-through
  • Whether Stock Price Strength (-0.7936) stops falling: 5 straight sessions of deterioration is the first quality test of the rebound
  • Whether Safe Haven (0.1714) holds above zero: a break below confirms 20-day stock underperformance — deepening risk-off
  • Whether the junk spread ratio (1.2303) keeps narrowing AND FRED HY OAS follows lower: dual confirmation of credit warmth
  • Whether Momentum (S&P 7,718.60) holds the 125-day MA
• Historical comparison: against the June bottom zone (6/10 27.29, 6/26 24.66, 6/30 29.97), after which the index recovered to 46.83 by mid-July. This cycle’s 30.91 low is similar in shape but repaired faster (3 days +35.4% vs. ~2 weeks in June), with internals far weaker and credit far stronger than in June — the “credit first, stocks later” mismatch means sustainability depends on when Strength stops falling. Tactically: sentiment sits at the upper edge of Fear; the “don’t chase rebounds” principle holds. Wait for either “Strength stabilizes + 45 break” or “pullback to 35-30.91 with Strength stabilizing”

🚨 Crash-Precursor Indicator Dashboard

1. Credit Spreads

• High-Yield OAS: 2.65% | 🟢 Normal (<3% normal | 3-5% caution | 5-8% panic | >8% crisis)
• Investment-Grade OAS: 0.81% | 🟢 Normal (<1% normal | 1-2% caution | >2% panic)
• Trend: flat (latest FRED observation still 9/3: HY 2.66% → 2.65% then steady, IG 0.81% unchanged); absolute levels are healthy
• Note: directionally consistent with the F&G junk-bond sub-indicator (76.2 Extreme Greed) but milder in magnitude — CNN’s spread ratio narrowed -8.7% while FRED HY OAS moved only -1bp; the two-caliber lag persists. A break above the 3.0% warning line in HY OAS is the real sign of credit stress

2. Yield Curve

• 10Y-2Y spread: +41bp | 🟢 Normal-flat (not inverted)
• 10Y: 4.77% | 2Y: 4.34% | 30Y: 5.25%
• 10Y-30Y: -48bp (30Y above 10Y; normal upward slope at the long end)
• Trend: flat (FRED 9/3 observation, 10Y-2Y +41bp unchanged); curve shape stable, no inversion pressure

3. Margin Debt (FINRA) ⚠️ Correction this issue

• Latest: $1.502T (Jun-26, official FINRA) — record high
• MoM: +$86.5B (+6.1%, May $1.416T → Jun $1.502T); YoY: +49.0% (vs $1.008T in Jun-25)
• Net credit balance: -$1.06T (total free credits $441B minus gross debit $1.502T), record low — the thinnest investor cash buffer ever
• Status: 🔴 Record high (accelerating for two straight months: Apr +6.8%, May +8.5%, Jun +6.1%; both the absolute level and its share of GDP exceed the 2021 peak)
• Correction note: the 9/5 report labeled $1.417T as “July 2026” with a “record monthly decline of -5.6% and deleveraging underway.” Per the official FINRA page, $1.4156T is actually May data; the latest month is Jun-26 at $1.502T, a record high (+6.1% MoM). There was no monthly decline — the deleveraging narrative does not hold; July data is not yet published (FINRA normally releases in the third week of the following month; this one is delayed). The leverage amplifier remains at full load; combined with record passive inflows, the systemic fragility source is unresolved

4. IPO Market

• 2026 stats: 105 IPOs (Renaissance Capital, ≥$50mm market cap, through 9/1), proceeds $145.8B (+542.2% YoY), approaching the 2021 full-year record of $175B, driven by mega-deals (SpaceX et al.)
• Count: -26.1% YoY (vs 142 in the same 2025 period); August summer pause (10 deals, $1.8B, slightly above the 10-year August average); the post-Labor-Day calendar should pick up (Anthropic reportedly filing after Labor Day; Aggreko expected to raise ~$1.5B)
• Status: 🟡 Proceeds near record but count contracting — dependent on mega-deals, limited breadth

5. ETF Fund Flows

• 2026 YTD ETF net inflows: US-listed >$1.4T (through August, State Street; August +$180B, ~3.8x the historical August average)
• Comparison: already approaching the 2025 full-year record of $1.52T — State Street projects the record falls around 9/22, with full-year possibly reaching $2.3T; bond ETFs +$55B in August (4th straight month >$50B), YTD $407B closing in on the 2025 record of $448B
• Status: 🔴 Record inflows
• Read: passive money keeps pouring in on top of record margin debt — systemic risk keeps building; a reversal would be prone to a stampede

Summary

• 🟢 Normal: 3 (HY OAS, IG OAS, yield curve)
• 🟡 Caution: 1 (IPO market)
• 🔴 Risk: 2 (margin debt, ETF inflows)

Summary: Monday 9/7 is the US Labor Day holiday; CNN F&G data is frozen at the Friday 9/4 close. The composite at 41.86 (Fear) matches the 9/5 snapshot; the structure remains the “credit warming vs. internals crumbling” split: Junk Bond 76.2 (Extreme Greed, partly revision noise) vs. Strength 12.6 (Extreme Fear, deteriorating for 5 straight sessions) is the widest 63.6-pt fault line, with Safe Haven collapsing to 0.17 and VIX at the 14.5 ultra-low platform suggesting downside remains under-priced. On the crash-precursor side, one material correction: margin debt is $1.502T for Jun-26 — a record high (+6.1% MoM, +49% YoY); the prior report’s “July $1.417T with a record monthly decline” mislabeled May data and the deleveraging narrative does not hold. Credit spreads (HY 2.65%, IG 0.81%) and the yield curve (10Y-2Y +41bp) are all 🟢 normal; IPO proceeds of $145.8B approach records but counts contract (🟡); ETF inflows YTD >$1.4T are record-setting (🔴). Net: 3🟢/1🟡/2🔴. Tactically: no new signals during the holiday; keep the “consolidating at the upper edge of Fear, don’t chase rebounds” stance. After the 9/8 close, watch whether Strength stops falling, whether 45 is broken, whether Safe Haven breaks below zero, and the HY OAS vs. spread-ratio divergence.