CNN Fear & Greed Analysis 2026-06-25

CNN Fear & Greed Analysis — 2026-06-25

Composite Index

Current: 25.9 / 100 — Fear

• Down -1.6 vs yesterday, continuing decline
• Down -6.3 vs one week ago, accelerating
• Down -33.1 vs one month ago, crashed from greed to fear
• Current fear streak: 5 consecutive trading days (6/19-6/25), 5.9 points from extreme fear (<20)

7 Sub-Indicators Scan

Distribution:

• 🔴 Extreme Fear (<20): 3 — Breadth, Junk Bonds, Safe Haven
• 🟡 Fear (20-40): 3 — Momentum, Put/Call, Composite
• ⚪ Neutral: 1 — VIX
• 🟢 Greed/Extreme Greed: 0

Structural Divergence Analysis

Extreme Value Signals (>80 or <20):

Divergence Signals:

1. VIX vs Credit Spreads: VIX neutral (50) but HY OAS only 2.71% (normal) → Credit markets haven’t truly deteriorated, panic may be overdone
2. Breadth vs Momentum: Breadth extreme fear (13.6) but momentum still fear (35.2) → Few large-caps masking broad individual stock decline
3. Safe Haven vs Junk Bonds: Both extreme fear → Consistent risk-off, but credit spreads not yet confirming

Key Assessment: Three extreme fear indicators (breadth, junk bonds, safe haven) contrast sharply with one neutral indicator (VIX). This typically means the market is in a fear-spreading phase but hasn’t yet triggered systemic risk events (like a VIX spike).

Trend Analysis

Last 10 Trading Days:

Trend Assessment:

• Fear zone for 10 consecutive trading days (6/12 to present), declining from 35.5 to 25.9
• Decline accelerating: 5-day average 30.0 vs prior 5-day average 37.1
• 5.9 points from extreme fear threshold (20), likely to touch within 2-3 days at current pace
• Historical reference: FNG hit 2.5 (extreme fear bottom) in March 2020, then rapidly reversed

🚨 Crisis Early Warning Dashboard

1. Credit Spreads

• High Yield OAS: 2.71% | 🟢 Normal
• Investment Grade OAS: 0.74%
• Trend: Stable vs prior day
• Assessment: HY OAS below 3% warning line, credit markets haven’t deteriorated yet. But junk bond demand indicator (3.8) is already at extreme fear — investors actively reducing high-yield exposure. Spread widening likely imminent.

2. Yield Curve

• 10Y-2Y Spread: +30bp | 🟢 Normal, slightly flat
• 10Y: 4.50% | 2Y: 4.16% | 30Y: 4.94%
• Trend: Curve steepening slightly (30Y-10Y +44bp)
• Assessment: Yield curve normal, no inversion signal. 30Y-10Y spread +44bp indicates elevated long-end yields, inflation expectations still present.

3. Margin Debt

• Latest: $1.42T (May 2026, all-time high)
• YoY Change: +53.7%
• Status: 🔴 All-time high
• Assessment: Margin debt at record highs for second consecutive month, +8.5% MoM in May, +53.7% YoY. Leverage at historical extremes — market correction will trigger massive forced liquidations (2020/3 lesson).

4. IPO Count

• 2026 YTD: ~179
• vs Prior Year: Increasing (2020 full-year 480 was record pace)
• Status: 🟡 Warm to hot
• Assessment: IPO count at normal-to-elevated levels, not yet at 2020/2021 frenzy. But NYSE data shows 10 IPOs in last 30 days, pace accelerating.

5. Fund Flows

• 2026 YTD ETF Net Inflows: $830B (through May)
• Record: Yes ($70B active ETF inflows in May — single-month record)
• Status: 🔴 Euphoric
• Assessment: ETF inflows on record pace, $830B in just 5 months — annualized could exceed $2T. However, iShares notes March Q1-end flows slowed amid Middle East tensions, and much of inflow went to SGOV (short-term Treasury ETFs — defensive). Flow composition is diverging.

Summary Assessment

Overall: 2🟢 / 1🟡 / 2🔴 — Structured risk. Credit spreads and yield curve temporarily safe, but margin leverage and fund inflows at historical extremes. Market in a “fear sentiment + leverage greed” paradox.Once triggered (geopolitical escalation, weak economic data), elevated leverage will amplify the decline. Current FNG fear zone (25.9) offers short-term bounce potential, but medium-term risks continue accumulating.