Hourly Briefing | 2026-09-28 11:00 CST

Coverage window: Beijing Time 2026-09-28 10:00 to 11:00. Data sample time: 2026-09-28 11:01 CST.

Today trading day: Monday. A-shares opened at 09:30, now ~60 minutes in. HK stocks opened at 09:10. US markets closed (National Day holiday, reopen 10/8).

Core context: Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% unanimously on Sep 16. US 10Y yield at highest since 2007. Middle East: Iran cruise missile strike on US vessel in Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran negotiations stalled. RBA expected to hike on Sep 29.

This Hour’s Main Theme

Gold broke below $4,200 to $4,197, ChiNext extended losses beyond 4%, and the narrative upgraded from “safe-haven logic失效” to “global rate共振 upward + growth concerns” comprehensive risk repricing. Compared to the last issue (10:00), gold’s $4,200 psychological support failed, silver plummeted 3.6% to below $62, and the BoJ minutes signaled “faster hiking” — combined with the 2-year US Treasury surging to 4.90%, the market story spread from “USD strength alone” to “developed-market rates broadly repricing upward.”

Market Snapshot

vs. Previous (10:01 sample):

• Gold: ~4,216 → 4,197 (-$19, -0.45%). Intraday low 4,194.21 touched; $4,200 clearly broken. 10:36 Shanghai silver shed 5,600+ contracts, price fell to ¥15,101/kg.
• WTI: ~92.0 → 92.1 (+$0.1, flat). Intraday high 92.883, range-bound 91.4-92.88.

Key Developments

1. Gold breaks $4,200, silver plunges 3.6% ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

10:31-10:39 Jin10: Spot silver broke below $62/oz, first time since Aug 7, down 3.60% intraday; Shanghai silver 2610 down 4.07%, shedding 5,600+ contracts.Impact: Broad precious metals selloff, with silver (-3.6%) significantly underperforming gold (-2.06%), suggesting not just safe-haven shift but systematic deleveraging driven by rising rate expectations. The daily low of 4,194 means $4,200 has flipped from “psychological support” to “technical resistance.” Condition for reversal: If US bond yields fall after NY open → precious metals could see technical bounce. Source: Jin10 flash.

2. A-shares broad selloff: ChiNext down 4%+, tech hit hard ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

10:27-10:39 Jin10: ChiNext down 4%+, Shenzhen Component -3.25%, Shanghai Composite -1.77%, Science & Tech 50 -3.8%, 4,800+ stocks declined. F5G, CPO, and fiber optic sectors led declines (Hengtong Optic-Electric, Huamai Technology hit limit-down).Impact: A-share losses widened from -2% at open to -4% by 10:30, indicating bearish momentum intensified post-10:30 rather than faded. Tech/growth stocks most sensitive to global rate rises — Japan 2yr at 4.90%, Japan 5yr at record 2.430% directly press global growth stock valuation anchors. Source: Jin10 flash.

3. BoJ minutes hawkish: multiple members discussed faster hiking ⭐⭐⭐⭐

10:46 Jin10 (ID: 231118): BoJ July minutes revealed hawkish signals, multiple members discussed accelerating the pace of rate hikes, upside inflation risks mounting.Impact: This confirms the 09:15 former-official report that “Oct hike is non-trivial” — the BoJ internal debate exists on “faster than expected.” If BoJ hikes to 1.50% in October → yen surges → carry trade unwind risk re-emerges (similar to Sep 2024 “carry trade unwinding” narrative).冲击美股 tech via two channels: ① yen appreciation compresses Japanese electronics/instrument company revenues; ② global liquidity tightening raises discount rates. Source: Jin10 flash.

4. Trump rejects Iran proposal, oil rise fuels inflation worries ⭐⭐⭐

10:03 Jin10: After Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Monday Asian-session oil prices rose; 2-year US Treasury yield jumped 5bp to 4.90%.Impact: Iran refusal + oil rise combination is forming a “stagflation trade” — supply disruption (Middle East) pushes inflation expectations while demand weakness (China profit growth slowdown, curve inversion) suppresses growth. Source: Jin10 flash.

5. Japan 5-year yield hits record 2.430% ⭐⭐⭐

10:02 Jin10: Japan 5-year Treasury yield rose 3bp intraday to 2.430%, setting a record high.Impact: The 5-year is the most sensitive indicator of 5-year policy path expectations. 2.43% at record high means Japan’s domestic inflation expectations are fully priced in. This pressures Japanese pension/insurance funds’ global allocation — Japan is one of the world’s largest overseas bond holders; rising yields → overseas assets relatively less attractive → potential Japanese capital repatriation. Source: Jin10 flash.

Assessment

Global rates rising in sync: from “USD alone strong” to “multi-market hiking.” Japan 2yr at 4.90%, 5yr at record 2.430%; RBA expected to hike Sep 29; Fed just hiked in September — global major central banks’ policy directions are coordinately tight. Assessment: This is the most synchronized “global hiking cycle” since 2022, and the valuation compression pressure on growth stocks is systemic, not a single-market disturbance. If US tech stocks gap down when markets resume next week, don’t simply attribute it to “Asian sentiment spillover” — it’s direct reflection of global rate anchor repricing upward. Reversal condition: If BoJ unexpectedly holds rates at October meeting → hawkish narrative disproven → global risk assets could rebound.

Gold: post-$4,200 breakdown多空 play. Last issue identified $4,200 as key support — it’s now broken. Assessment: Short-term bearish but watch for oversold bounce. Technically, $4,200 → $4,180 → $4,150 is the possible path; macro-fundamentally, Middle East uncertainty (Iran missile report, Hormuz tensions) remains mid-term support. Silver underperforming gold suggests precious metals are collectively deleveraging — do not short chase at $4,195; wait for signs of stop-loss exhaustion near $4,180. If US yields climb further after NY open → gold may test $4,180; if Dallas Fed business activity beats → recession trade cools → precious metals may technical rebound to $4,220-4,250.

A-shares: weakness persists, but 4% decline approaches extreme. ChiNext widened from -2% at open to -4%, 4,800+ stocks down — this falls into A-share history’s “broad panic” range. Assessment: If losses don’t narrow to within -2.5% after 13:00 open →全天可能收在最低点, forming a标志性 panic candle. Watch two signals: ① whether capital rotates from tech to defensive sectors (banks, utilities, power) — power sector already rallied intraday (Zhejiang New Energy hit limit-up); ② whether any policy catalyst emerges pre-holiday (National Day stability expectation). Conversely, if losses narrow before 11:30午盘 → current move can be viewed as continuation of pre-holiday reduction wave, not a trend reversal.

Next Few Hours

Key watchpoints:

• A-share midday (11:30): Can ChiNext narrow from -4%; whether defensive sectors (power, banks) continue outperforming.
• 22:30 Dallas Fed Business Activity: The only US macro data this week. If below expectations → recession trade intensifies → US yields fall → precious metals may bounce; if above → rate-rise narrative reinforced → global risk assets under pressure.