Hourly Brief | 2026-09-25 13:00 CST

Coverage window: Beijing Time 2026-09-25 12:00 to 13:00. Data sample time: 2026-09-25 13:00 CST.

Today trading day: Friday. A-shares and HK stocks in session. US markets closed (ET 9/24 16:00 = CST 09/25 04:00).

Core backdrop: Fed fully voted to raise 25bp on Sep 16 to 3.75%-4.00%. US 10Y yield hit 5.2%, highest since 2007. Middle East - US-Iran Hormuz negotiation framework exposed, Houthi forces continue attacks on Saudi facilities. RBA expected to raise rates on 9/29.

Core Theme This Hour

No new US catalysts this window; the theme carries forward from the prior brief: Iran negotiation narrative suppresses geopolitical premium, but the Russian refinery attack provides a supply-disruption hedge. At 12:32, the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Russia’s Rostov region was damaged by a drone and suspended operations - the only substantive new development this period.叠加 Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities, the “negotiation cooling + supply disruption” contradictory pattern persists. Oil oscillates narrowly in the 91.6-93.6 range; gold gives back morning highs and finds support near $4,260.

Market Snapshot

Change vs. prior brief (12:08 sample):

• Gold: 4,269.73→4,262.47 (-7.26, -0.17%). Comparable. Continues pulling back from the 4,295 high; narrow range after 12:00, support at ~4,260.
• WTI: 91.944→91.975 (+0.03, flat). Essentially unchanged. Intraday range 91.6-93.6; Iran negotiation signal vs. Russian refinery attack offset each other.
• HK HSI lunch -1.69% (12:08 data), consistent with prior brief; weakness continues post-lunch.

Key Incremental News

1. Russian Rostov Refinery Hit by Drone, Suspended Operations ⭐⭐⭐

12:32 Jin10 (market report): The Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Russia’s Rostov region was damaged by a drone attack and suspended operations. Impact: This is another substantive supply disruption event following the Houthi attack on Saudi facilities. Russia accounts for ~3% of global refining capacity; if the outage persists → the diesel-crude spread widens further, indirectly supporting crude prices. But unlike Middle East supply disruption, Russian facility recovery timelines are relatively predictable, and “routine war damage” in the conflict context has been partially priced by the market. Contrast: Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities represent non-state actor threats to critical strait nodes, carrying higher risk premiums.

2. Iran FM Holds Bilateral Meetings at UGA ⭐⭐

12:30 Jin10 (per Iran’s Fars News): Foreign Minister Araghchi held meetings with counterparts from Portugal, Cyprus, and Brunei during the UN General Assembly. Impact: Extends the negotiation narrative from last period’s Iran President statements, but this round involves multilateral contacts rather than direct US-Iran dialogue, providing no new substantive concessions or deal details. If subsequent US-Iran bilateral meeting schedules are exposed → the negotiation narrative strengthens; currently background diplomatic activity with neutral-to-dull impact on oil/gold.

3. HK Lunch Session Down 1.69%, Tech Stocks Broadly Weak ⭐⭐

12:08 Jin10: HSI lunch down 1.69%, Hang Seng Tech down 2.14%; Xiaomi/Alibaba down over 3%. Impact: Consistent with the prior brief, HK stocks remain weak. Friday effect + record US 10Y yield create dual pressure. Without mainland China policy support in the afternoon session, the decline may persist. This creates sentiment spillover pressure on A-share open (13:00), though A-shares tend to trade independently post-lunch.

Situation Assessment

Crude: Two-way tug-of-war between “negotiation suppresses premium” and “supply disruption puts a floor.” Brent/WTI dropped nearly 2% intraday and stabilized in the 91-92 area, reflecting market indecision between the Iran negotiation signal (bearish) and Russian/Saudi supply disruption (bullish). Assessment: 91.6-93.6 is the current implied equilibrium range; directional breakout awaits tonight’s 21:30 EIA inventory data. If EIA shows significant draw → negotiation narrative disproven, oil rebounds to 94-96; if build → tests below 90. Strategy: chasing long or short in this range offers roughly even odds; avoid directional positions ahead of data.

Gold: 4,260 is the near-term bullish/bearish divide. Gold gave back all gains from the 4,295 high and now sits near the intraday low of 4,261.41. Assessment: The rate pressure from US 10Y breaking 5.2% continues to cap gold’s upside, but geopolitical conflicts (Middle East + Russia) and recession fears bracket the downside. A break below 4,260 → short-term bearish, looking at 4,230-4,240 (last week’s consolidation zone top); a bounce holding 4,280 → continues range-bound pattern. Currently not advisable to short sell at 4,260 - downside risk is limited.

US Outlook: Tonight’s data sets next week’s opening direction. US Friday markets closed nearly flat (S&P -0.02%); light trading is typical pre-weekend. Assessment: The 22:00 Michigan Consumer Confidence final reading is the last macro data node this week - if below 47.5 consensus → recession trade heats up → US futures (Sunday night/Monday open) under pressure; if in-line → rate narrative persists but without panic. The RBA decision Wednesday + cumulative EIA data this week are the near-term uncertainty sources. Overall strategy: low position, wait-and-see through the weekend, no directional预判.

Coming Hours

Key observation points: The 17:15 Fed Williams speech is the last Fed voice this week - if hawkish (emphasizing inflation stickiness) → US 10Y re-tests highs, pressuring Monday US opens; if dovish (mentioning labor market risks) → recession trade intensifies. The 21:30 EIA and 22:00 Michigan data are the last two macro catalysts of the week.