Hourly Brief | 2026-09-25 12:00 CST

Coverage window: Beijing time 2026-09-25 11:00 to 12:00. Data sampling time: 2026-09-25 12:08 CST.

Today trading day: Friday. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in session. US stocks closed (EDT 9/24 16:00 = Beijing time 09/25 04:00).

Core backdrop: Fed voted unanimously on Sept 16 to raise 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%. US 10Y yield rose to 5.2%, highest since 2007. Middle East tensions — US-Iran Hormuz negotiation framework exposed, Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities continue. RBA expected to raise 9/29.

This Hour’s Main Theme

Iranian President expands negotiation signals + crude oil intraday pressure and pullback is the clearest change this window. Compared to the 08:00 briefing, Raisi upgraded from vague “war depends on the US” to specific conditions — “willing to abandon 60% enrichment under international law,” “strait has always been open,” “framework of understanding already signed,” combined with Brent crude down 2% intraday to $98.69 and the Hazan threat lifted. Geopolitical premium faces short-term compression pressure. But negotiations from exposure to implementation need weeks, and Houthi simultaneous new attacks create contradictory battlefield signals. Gold supported at $4,290 then gave up gains, reflecting the tug-of-war between safe-haven buying and geopolitical easing signals.

Market Snapshot

Change from previous period (08:00 sampling):

• Gold: $4,265.09 → $4,269.73 (+4.64, +0.11%). Comparable. Touched $4,295.78 high then retraced; Iranian negotiation signals capped safe-haven buying, but US 10Y breaking 5.2% recession concerns provide floor support.
• WTI: $92.827 → $91.944 (-0.883, -0.95%). Comparable. Intraday high $93.602 then steady pullback; Brent同步跌逾2% to $98.69. Driven by Iran President’s expanded negotiation signals (see News 1) and the contradictory narrative of Houthi-Saudi mutual attacks.
• HSI: Drawdown widened to -1.88%, Hang Seng Tech down 2%+, Alibaba/Xiaomi fell 3%+. Enhanced risk-off capital flight signal.

Key Incremental News

1. Iranian President Expands Negotiation Signals — Willing to Abandon 60% Enrichment, Strait “Always Open” ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

11:14 Jin10 (ID: 20260925111400144800): Raisi Fox News interview expanded — ① “Framework of understanding already signed and ratified”; ② “Will continue to abide by all NPT commitments, will abandon 60% enrichment under international law”; ③ “Never closed the Hormuz Strait, the strait has always been open”; ④ “We reached an agreement with your President”; ⑤ “If they continue to fight, we will give a firm response.” Comparison with 08:00 briefing: Earlier (06:21) only mentioned “didn’t close strait, war depends on US”; this session adds specific concession conditions like “framework of understanding signed” and “abandon 60% enrichment,” upgrading negotiation narrative from vague statements to quantifiable terms. Impact: If market reads this as substantial compromise signal → crude geopolitical premium further compressed (Brent already at $98.69); but “firm response if fought continued” retains military deterrence, and specific execution path and timeline remain unclear. Counter-evidence: Houthi 11:02 Iranian IRGC simultaneously announced “military actions changed battlefield dynamics”; diplomacy soft line and military hard line run parallel. Confirmation condition: Subsequent official confirmation of “framework of understanding” specific terms by Iranian or US side.

2. Brent Crude Down 2% Intraday to $98.69, WTI Down Over 2% to $91.94 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

11:01 Jin10: Brent crude intraday decline widened to 2.00%, now at $98.69/bbl. Same day 09:42 reported WTI down 2% to $91.94. Impact: Both oils down over 2% intraday — rare synchronized sharp pullback since mid-conflict escalation. Direct catalyst: Iranian President’s expanded negotiation signals (News 1) and Hazan threat clearance (previous briefing). Note: Yesterday close WTI still rose 2.66% to $94.61, today’s pullback digests yesterday’s gains — daily -2% change and intraday volatility should not be conflated. Key observation: If Brent breaks $98 support → short-term sentiment turns bearish; if rebounds to $99-100 → negotiation signals deemed “all talk, no action” by market.

3. Goldman: AI Sector Still Attractive, $800B Super-Scale Investment Supports Asia Hardware Chain ⭐⭐⭐

10:55 Jin10 (ID: 20260925105514316800): Goldman Asia Pacific equity strategy head says AI-related stocks remain attractive despite rising US treasury yields. Super-scale cloud companies expected to invest ~$800B this year, potentially reaching $1.2T in 2027. Asian stocks overall PE ~10x, at historical lows. Impact: Goldman’s bullish stance on AI hardware chain contrasts with market avoidance of high-valuation tech stocks in a higher-rate + recession-warning environment. If US recession materializes (see News 4), super-scale capex growth may slow, questioning current AI hardware valuation resilience. But if earnings growth provides the buffer Goldman cites, Asian low-valuation hardware stocks become preferred picks for rate-sensitive capital. Related names: Asian semiconductor/hardware supply chain (TSM, ASML, AMAT, etc.).

4. Oxford Economics Warning: US Business Cycle Indicator Drops Into Recession Zone ⭐⭐⭐

10:16 Jin10 (ID: 20260925101605985800): Oxford Economics US business cycle indicator has dropped into recession territory, reasons: energy price hikes squeezing household real income + immigration slowdown weakening employment trend growth. But the institution simultaneously questions the indicator — strong productivity growth, wealth effects supporting consumption, AI infrastructure and corporate profit margins still supporting investment. Impact: Oxford’s “recession indicator in zone” paired with “recession unlikely in reality” dual view reflects current macro judgment的高度分歧. For US stocks: If recession materializes → Fed Oct raise probability (67.5%) will drop sharply, rate-sensitive growth stocks fall then rebound; if Oxford overly pessimistic → treasury yields continue climbing, stock valuations remain pressured. Important background variable before tonight’s Michigan confidence data.

5. Trump Expresses Concern Over Weak Yen to Japanese PM, US-Japan Will Maintain FX Communication ⭐⭐

10:36 Jin10 (ID: 20260925103616572800): Trump expressed concern over yen depreciation during NY meeting with Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi. Finance Minister Sumoekata Katayama confirmed close FX coordination with US Treasury. USD/JPY returned to 160 area. Impact: If US-Japan reach tacit agreement on yen intervention → USD/JPY short-term pressured, with chain effects on global risk asset FX. But 160 yen is the historical intervention threshold for Japan’s Finance Ministry, not yet reached → currently only at communication level, not an immediate trading signal.

Situation Assessment

Iran Negotiations: From “verbal signals” to “quantifiable conditions,” but execution uncertainty is extremely high. Raisi’s 11:14 expanded remarks are this window’s biggest variable — new additions of “abandon 60% enrichment,” “framework of understanding already signed” specific expressions. If true, this is the most explicit Iranian concession since conflict escalation. Assessment: Market’s initial reaction is oil price decline (Brent -2%), but note ① specific content of “framework of understanding” has no official disclosure yet; media interpretation vs. substantive agreement has huge gaps; ② Iran simultaneously has IRGC emphasize “military actions changed battlefield dynamics”; diplomatic soft line and military hard line run in parallel; ③ Houthis simultaneously announced attacks on Saudi Riyadh and Yanbu facilities, indicating non-state actors不受Tehran’s diplomatic pace. For crude: short-term 90-94 range, below constrained by negotiation expectations, but if this week’s EIA inventory data (tonight 21:30) shows continued accumulation → oil may further test $88-90 support.

US Stocks — Recession Concerns vs. AI Capex Tug-of-War. S&P 500 daily change only -0.02% nearly flat, but Nasdaq China Dragon Index down 0.67%, Hong Kong tech stocks down 2%+, reflecting Asian markets’ heightened sensitivity to the “US 10Y breaks 5.2% + Oxford recession indicator” narrative. Assessment: Friday US stocks closed, narrow late-range fluctuation is typical “waiting for data” pattern. Tonight’s Michigan confidence final (22:00 CST) is key — if below 47.5 expectation → recession trade intensifies → treasury yields fall, stock futures pressured; if meets or exceeds → rate narrative continues, growth valuations remain pressured. Short-term strategy: wait on the sidelines, don’t chase longs or panic sell.

Hong Kong Stocks Continue Weaker — Capital Risk-Off Signal. HSI -1.88%, Hang Seng Tech -2%+, Alibaba/Xiaomi down 3%+. Assessment: HK stocks face triple pressure — US 10Y yield at new highs (USD-denominated asset valuations pressured), mainland China economic data divergence (PMI weak but power capacity +11.1%), and Friday global capital weekend risk-off demand. Short-term watch 24,000 integer support; if broken → 23,500 (August low area) may be next support level.

Next Few Hours

Key observation: Tonight’s 21:30 EIA crude inventory is the catalyst for crude directional breakout — if continued draws exceeding expectations → Iranian negotiation signals falsified, oil rebounds; if further accumulation → WTI may test below $90. 22:00 Michigan confidence data determines US stock Monday open direction.