Hourly Briefing | 2026-09-24 16:00 CST

Coverage window: Beijing Time 2026-09-24 15:00 to 16:00. Data sample time: 2026-09-24 16:01 CST.

Today trading day: Thursday. A-shares and HK stocks trading. US pre-market.

Core backdrop: Fed voted unanimously on Sep 16 to raise 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%. US Treasuries saw worst sell-off in 18 months, 10Y yield rising to 5.11%, a 2007 high. Middle East tensions persist—Iran war in its second half, Hormuz Strait risk elevated. BOJ recently hiked to 1.25%, Japan 10Y bond yield at ~30-year highs.

Hourly Main Theme

Swiss National Bank holds rates at zero but removes “intervention willingness” language while significantly raising inflation and growth forecasts, sending an “anti-inflation first” signal; meanwhile, US-China 8th round talks reach consensus and Saudi accelerates oil sales to Asia—three forces pulling risk sentiment in different directions. Compared to the previous issue, SNB has moved from “countdown” to “delivered”—rates as expected, but the hawkish wording shift is the new variable; Japan bonds and SC crude main theme continues without new breakouts.

Market Snapshot

Change from previous period (15:00 sample):

• Gold rose from 4,276.01 to 4,279.40 (+3.39, +0.08%), narrow rebound after SNB decision, still below open of 4,288.96. Consecutive daily quotes, comparable.
• WTI Crude rose slightly from 91.879 to 92.116 (+0.237, +0.26%). Consecutive daily quotes, comparable. Crude barely moved around SNB decision; market pricing for energy remains dominated by Middle East supply risk.

Note: Daily change uses Jin10 platform daily open as baseline (Gold open 4,288.96; Crude open 91.993), not hourly change. SC Crude (SHFE) has shallow liquidity and WTI is platform CFD—direct comparison invalid.

Key Incremental News

1. Swiss National Bank Holds at Zero but Removes “Intervention” Language, Raises Inflation & Growth Forecasts ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

15:30 Jin10: SNB kept benchmark rate at 0%, in line with expectations. But the statement removed “increase willingness” wording from FX expressions (previously said “ready to intervene if needed to weaken Swiss Franc”); simultaneously raised 2026 inflation forecast to 0.7% (prev 0.6%), 2027 to 0.8% (prev 0.6%), and 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%-2% (prev 1.0%). Impact: Rates were never in doubt; the marginal change is in wording and expectations—removal of intervention language = reduced hedging against Franc weakness, bearish for CHF, bullish for EUR/CHF (already up to 0.9411). Higher inflation forecast points directly to petroleum price rises, indirectly acknowledging Middle East geopolitical pass-through. Dual impact on gold: CHF weakness is historically bullish for gold, but higher inflation expectations may also pressure gold’s short-term elasticity via real rates. Source: Jin10 Data.

2. US-China 8th Round Trade Talks Reach Multiple Consensus Points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

15:49 Jin10: China’s Ministry of Commerce stated the US-China economic teams held the 8th round of talks in the US, reaching multiple consensus points on implementing existing agreements, reciprocal tariff reductions, and trade facilitation mechanisms. Impact: In the macro environment of rising Japan bonds and Middle East risk,缓和 of US-China trade channels is a positive signal for risk assets, especially benefiting export chains and shipping. Note: historical experience shows consensus-to-tariff-reduction implementation takes months; short-term情绪 impact may exceed实质 change. Source: Jin10 citing China Ministry of Commerce.

3. Saudi Arabia Sold Nearly 100M Barrels to Asia, Alleviating Supply Tensions ⭐⭐⭐⭐

15:40 Jin10: Dealers said Saudi has sold nearly 100M barrels to Asian buyers since mid-last week, with Oct/Nov deliveries transiting the Hormuz Strait. Impact: Saudi accelerating output is a substantive supply buffer signal—if Riyadh maintains this delivery pace, Hormuz通行 risk’s impact on actual supply will be partially offset. But it also confirms Hormuz remains the sole transit route, so geopolitical risk is not eliminated. Bearish for WTI short-term (supply panic easing), but SC Crude may lag due to thin liquidity and RMB pricing. Source: Jin10 citing dealers.

4. Japan 10Y Bond Yield Breaks 3.1%, Bond Sell-Off Spreads from Short to Long End ⭐⭐⭐

No new Japan bond entries in this hour’s Jin10 flash (previous hour saw 5Y break 2.38%, 2Y break 1.90%). Per Jin10 Sep 24 morning brief, US 5Y yield first broke 5% since 2007; Japan 10Y around 3.1%. Impact: Japan short-end breakout was detailed in the previous briefing; no new data point this hour, theme continues. If 10Y breaks 3.20%, broader global bond repricing may trigger. Source: Jin10 morning brief.

5. India’s Power Deficit Exceeds Summer Levels, Hydro Drowned by Drought ⭐⭐⭐

15:50 Jin10: India’s power shortage during peak season has exceeded summer heatwave levels; monsoon drought significantly curtailed hydro generation, with night-time deficit reaching 7 GW. Impact: India’s power shortage may increase its energy import demand (including crude, LNG), supporting Asian energy demand expectations. India as a key pharma and IT services exporter also means power instability has indirect global supply chain impacts. Source: Jin10 citing India Ministry of Power.

Situation Assessment

SNB Delivered: Dovish on rates, hawkish on wording, Franc weakens but Gold reacts flat. The market fully priced “zero rates unchanged”; the real边际 change was removing “intervention willingness” and raising inflation forecasts. Call: CHF weakness should historically support gold, but gold only rebounded $3.39 to 4279 between 15:00-16:00, meaning the market already priced SNB results—gold lacks additional near-term catalysts. Key support at 4270; a break opens 4250. Resistance at 4320.

Crude: Saudi output vs. Hormuz risk—near-term balance of forces. Saudi’s 100M barrel deliveries are a substantive supply buffer, yet WTI only closed at 92.11 (daily change near zero), indicating the market views near-term supply disruption risk as manageable. SC Crude’s earlier 6% surge lacked WTI fundamental support. Call: WTI range-bound at 90-94, chasing highs carries more risk than opportunity. API inventory data (tonight 21:30 CST) provides key validation—if inventories surprise to the upside→crude under pressure short-term; if sharp draw→SC Crude narrative may reignite. Strategy:不宜 chase WTI longs; SC Crude volatility makes risk-reward unattractive.

US-China Consensus—情绪 positive,实质待验证. In the double pressure of rising Japan bonds and Middle East risk, US-China trade channel缓和 is the biggest positive variable this hour. Call: Bullish for risk assets, especially export chains and shipping. But history shows consensus-to-implementation takes months; short-term market reaction may be excessive. Confirmation condition: specific tariff reduction list announced→benefit sustains; if only “consensus” language→sentiment fades back to fundamentals.

Key Events Next Few Hours

Key validations ahead: API/EIA inventories (21:30) will confirm whether energy supply-demand fundamentals support geopolitical premium; Michigan Consumer Confidence (01:00 next day) is an important leading indicator of inflation expectations—if confidence deteriorates→Fed October hike probability rises further→bearish for growth stock valuations.

Data source: Jin10 Data (jin10.com). Market data as-of 2026-09-24 16:00 CST. Germany Sep IFO Business Climate was scheduled for 16:00 publication; not yet visible in Jin10 flash feed at sample time—data gap noted.