πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Gold XAUUSD: $4,431.00 β–Ό0.95% | Range $4,365.76–$4,490.74 (briefly broke below $4,400 post-NFP, recovered on Trump’s rate-cut pressure; weekly -0.52%)
  • WTI Crude USOIL: $89.27 β–Ό0.41% | Range $86.93–$89.91 (supported by US-Iran clashes; WTI & Brent logged their biggest weekly gain since late July)
  • US Stocks (9/4 close): Dow -0.51% (wk -0.27%) | S&P 500 -0.38% (wk +0.09%) | Nasdaq -0.29% (wk +0.4%); semis/memory/optical rallied against the tape
  • US Treasuries: 2Y touched 4.42% (highest since Jan 2025); 10Y touched 4.82% (highest since Nov 2023)
  • JGBs: 10Y yield broke above 3% for the first time β€” highest since 1996
  • JPY: +2.5% on the week, +2% on Thursday; market prices 75% odds of a 25bp BOJ hike in Sept, carry trades unwinding

πŸ”₯ Overnight Headlines

  1. Putin meets US envoys, Ukraine ceasefire signals β€” Putin held talks with Trump envoy Witkoff and son-in-law Kushner at the Kremlin for over 3 hours; Ushakov said a series of peace proposals have been drafted; Putin ordered no strikes on Kyiv for three days, and Zelensky announced halting strikes on Moscow until Sept 7, hoping Russia reciprocates on Kyiv.
  2. US-Iran clash again at sea β€” US CENTCOM said IRGC fired ballistic missiles at two US Navy ships, and US forces sank three Iranian crude tankers in response; IRGC then claimed strikes on three tankers and three US-linked vessels; UKMTO reported multiple merchant ships hit by “incapacitating fire” in the Gulf; Iran denied any attack on its Isfahan nuclear facility.
  3. Hot NFP rekindles hike bets, Trump pushes for cuts β€” August nonfarm payrolls rose 162K vs 56K expected, with 55K upward revisions to June/July; unemployment 4.1%; LSEG data shows 59% odds of a 25bp Sept hike, fully pricing a December hike; Trump praised the jobs data and threatened to cut trade with surplus countries.
  4. Global bond selloff, long-end yields at cycle highs β€” US 10Y touched 4.82% on the week, Japan 10Y broke 3%; US diesel retail prices hit record highs, energy inflation deepening the Fed’s dilemma.
  5. Next week’s focus: CPI “ultimate test” β€” Fed enters the blackout period before the Sept meeting; the Aug 8 US CPI on Sept 11 will set the direction; FOMC meets Sept 15-16 with the market pricing 59% odds of a hike.

🧭 Situation Assessment

The overnight theme is a tug-of-war between geopolitical de-escalation and rate-hike expectations: ceasefire signals on Russia-Ukraine, while US-Iran fighting at sea escalates in parallel.

With 59% odds of a September hike priced after the hot NFP, the rate path is now the core variable for all asset pricing.

Record highs in global long-end yields (US 10Y 4.82%, Japan 10Y above 3%) are more worrying than equity volatility β€” rising funding costs are compressing risk-asset valuations.

Oil is caught between US-Iran clashes and Russia-Ukraine dΓ©tente: merchant ship attacks near Hormuz are a tail risk to supply, partly offset by Iraq lifting export capacity above 3M bpd.

Gold’s $4,400 level is pivotal: a break lower targets $4,350/$4,300; holding above opens $4,500. Near term it follows rate expectations; medium term it is underpinned by US debt and fiscal deficits.

Next week’s CPI (Sept 11) is the decisive print β€” expect elevated volatility into the FOMC (Sept 15-16); avoid heavy one-sided bets.

The yen and BOJ September hike odds (75%) are the trigger for carry-trade unwinding; keep monitoring.

πŸ“… Key Calendar

  • Today 9/6 (Sun): No major economic data
  • 9/7 (Mon): US Labor Day β€” US markets closed
  • 9/10 (Thu) 12:30 Beijing time: Malaysia MPOB August palm oil supply/demand report
  • 9/11 (Fri): US August CPI (“ultimate test” β€” the Fed is caught between Trump and inflation)
  • This week: ECB rate decision
  • 9/15-16 (Tue-Wed): Fed September FOMC meeting (market prices 59% odds of a 25bp hike)