π° Hourly Brief | 2026-09-04 21:00 CST
US August nonfarm payrolls surged to 162K vs 56K expected, with June/July revised up 55K combined; September hike odds jumped to 61%-67%; gold plunged $97 through 4400 to 4376; 2Y Treasury yield hit 4.416%, highest since Jan 2025.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold 4376.45 (-2.17%, -$96.86), range 4374.82-4490.74; broke below 4400 after NFP, falling $70 in minutes
- WTI Crude 88.27 (-1.53%), range 87.96-89.91, tracking risk assets lower
π₯ Top Stories This Hour
- US August nonfarm payrolls +162K, far above 56K expected β highest since March; June/July revised up a combined 55K; unemployment steady at 4.1%; hourly wages +0.3% MoM (3.1% YoY, still lagging CPI); participation 61.6% (beat)
- September hike bets surge: swaps price 61% odds of a Fed hike on Sept 16 (ZeroHedge cites 67%), back to post-Jackson-Hole highs
- Treasury yields spike: 2Y to 4.406% (+7.2bp), then 4.416% β highest since January 2025; 10Y to 4.792% (+3bp)
- Dollar surges: DXY to session high 99.93; JPY/EUR/GBP all lower (USD/JPY +55 pips to 156.52)
- US equity futures turn lower on rate-hike expectations; gold -$70, silver -$1.5, palladium -3%+
- Nvidia equity investments surge 10x+ to $99B in a year β investing in model companies, cloud providers, and infra firms to fuel more GPU purchases; shifting from selling chips to building an ecosystem
- Anthropic CEO: AI could replace software engineers within 6-12 months; Canada August employment -41.7K (vs +15K expected), full-time -35.9K β stark contrast with US strength
π§ Market Assessment
NFP of 162K plus 55K upward revisions leaves no doubt about labor-market resilience; a September hike is now the base case, not tail risk.
Renewed hike expectations gutted precious metals: gold fell nearly $100 in an hour and lost 4400 β short-term bullish structure is broken; watch the 4370-4340 support zone.
The 2Y yield at its highest since Jan 2025 shows rates pricing the hike-reflation path ahead of equities; futures turning lower signals valuations starting to feel the pressure.
The classic “strong NFP = strong dollar + weak gold + pressured equities” combo is back, but 3.1% wage growth still trails CPI β if next week’s CPI runs hot again, stagflation trades would hit both stocks and bonds.
Positioning: gold stop-losses are likely not fully flushed; rallies into 4410-4430 face selling pressure. Equity direction depends on how markets digest hike odds before next week’s CPI.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- 9/10 12:30 MPOB August palm oil report: stocks expected at 7-month high; market watching El NiΓ±o
- Next week: US August CPI β with wages lagging CPI, inflation data will decide how far the hike trade runs
- Next week: USDA September WASDE, ECB rate decision
- 9/5-6 Witkoff & Kushner visit Russia/Ukraine (Peskov has responded)