πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold 4478.43 (-0.11%), range 4460-4491, consolidating below the 4500 level
  • WTI Crude 88.78 (-0.96%), range 88.43-89.91, broke below $89
  • USD/CNY onshore closed at 6.7108 (16:30), up 73 pips from prior session
  • UK August construction PMI 44.3, miss vs 45.5 expected (prev 44.7), sector still contracting
  • BoE survey: 12-mth ahead expected own-price inflation 3.8% (-0.1ppt q/q); expected wage growth unchanged at 3.4%

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  1. Fed Governor Waller: September hike highly dependent on August CPI β€” says give inflation more time to cool, decide at the next meeting; dovish tone further cools hike expectations
  2. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund plans ~$80B US Treasury reduction: the $2.3T fund to cut US Treasury exposure by ~12.2%, rotate into agency MBS; Westpac says the move foreshadows market repricing, adding supply pressure to Treasuries
  3. “Dr. Doom” Roubini turns bullish on yen: Japan undergoing structural transformation, optimistic on medium-term growth; yen may strengthen medium-term β€” echoes Nomura’s warning of three consecutive BoJ hikes in extreme scenarios
  4. Bilibili (BILI.O) big moves: plans $700M convertible senior notes with Tencent subscribing $200M; secondary placement (repurchasing ~$100M of borrowed shares) plus board-approved special buyback up to $300M
  5. Tencent biggest winner in Enflame (SuanYuan) IPO: market value of stake exceeds RMB 10B, additional RMB 248M in strategic placement; domestic cloud AI chip leader starts STAR Market subscription
  6. Trade friction lines: Canada PM Carney calls US tariffs “a miscalculation”; second China-Cambodia public-private dialogue held in Phnom Penh
  7. South Korea reportedly considering deploying forces to Strait of Hormuz: troops planned by year-end covering patrol, logistics and mine clearance β€” Iran conflict spillover risk widening
  8. Ukraine plans to expand drone operations against Russian civil aviation: WSJ reports aim is to “paralyze” commercial aviation; 32 Russian airports already temporarily closed per day on average in August
  9. Memory price hikes hit consumers: Counterpoint says 2026 average smartphone prices up ~15% globally, over 40% of models raised prices, first time in industry history
  10. China industry news: three national standards for solid-state batteries; 82 new funds launched this week (record single-week high, incl. first 8 ChiNext computing-infra ETFs); JD Logistics changes CFO

🧭 Market Assessment

Waller’s dovish tone ahead of NFP (20:30) keeps cooling September hike pricing; a weak print tonight would give risk assets and gold breathing room.

Norway’s Treasury cut plus ~$200B September issuance wave keeps the supply-demand imbalance in Treasuries the medium-term theme β€” long-end yields biased higher.

Gold consolidates below 4500; SocGen’s bullish call and a softer dollar provide support, but NFP and next week’s CPI will decide the breakout direction.

Crude broke below $89 as geopolitical premium eased somewhat; yet South Korea-Hormuz and Ukraine-Russia civil aviation risks show supply-side disruptions are far from over.

Yen carry-trade unwind risk rising: Roubini’s bullish call resonates with Nomura’s hike warning; if USD/JPY approaches 160, global risk assets face renewed pressure.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 20:30 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ US August Nonfarm Payrolls: prev -23K, exp +56K (Street range +80K to -25K)
  • 20:30 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ US August Unemployment Rate: prev 4.1%; Avg Hourly Earnings YoY prev 3.2%, exp 3.0%
  • 17:10 BoE Governor Bailey speech
  • 17:00 Eurozone July Retail Sales MoM: prev -0.3%, exp +0.3%
  • Next week: ECB rate decision (economists see it as possible “last hike”); US CPI; Sep 5-6 Witkoff & Kushner visit to Russia/Ukraine