πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold 4484.80 (+0.26%), range 4460-4491, back above 4480; SGE Gold T+D closed +1.36% at 965.0 CNY/g
  • WTI Crude 88.74 (-1.01%), range 88.59-89.91; Brent 93.66 (-1.0%)
  • China A-shares: Shanghai Composite -0.30% at 3930.12, Shenzhen Component -0.79%, ChiNext -0.78%; turnover RMB 2.03 trillion (expanded +RMB 271.7B), main funds net outflow RMB 43.4B; aquaculture sector rallied against the tide
  • Europe opened slightly lower: DAX -0.02%, FTSE 100 -0.22%; German Bund yields on track for a fourth straight weekly rise
  • HK: Shein-W (00625.HK) down over 9%

πŸ”₯ Top News This Hour

  1. Wall Street’s NFP divide goes public: consensus median +56K new jobs, bank forecasts range from +80K (Wells Fargo) to -25K; Saxo Bank says Waller’s comments cooled Sep hike expectations, with US/European stocks and global bonds rebounding and gold regaining momentum on a weaker dollar β€” but oil stays elevated, NFP and next week’s CPI remain the real test
  2. US retail diesel price hits record high: AAA data shows Iran/Russia war disruptions roiling energy markets, energy-driven inflation may heat up further; tight global supply meets peak demand season
  3. Iran sanctions “pressure beginning to show”: three senior Iranian sources say Washington has been escalating economic pressure over recent weeks to force concessions, with effects of the six-month conflict now emerging
  4. Thailand halts 49 data-center projects: public concerns over high power consumption hitting communities β€” AI infrastructure narrative cools in Southeast Asia
  5. Second-largest US school district bans generative AI: LAUSD prohibits all student use this school year; NYC public schools announce a one-year pause before high school level
  6. PBOC: implement moderately loose monetary policy, steadily resolve key-area risks, uphold correct performance outlook for high-quality financial development
  7. France testing Tesla full self-driving vehicles: transport minister says tests underway ahead of Europe’s October decision on FSD
  8. Banks turn bullish on gold: Societe Generale says “time to turn bullish on gold again” after months of correction, as the metal retests $4500
  9. Kazakhstan cuts policy rate to 16.25% (from 16.75%), noting limited room for further cuts

🧭 Situation Assessment

NFP (20:30) is the only game in town tonight; a Wall Street range from +80K to -25K means any direction in the print can be traded with amplification.

Gold is regaining momentum on a weaker dollar and institutional buyers, but if NFP beats and Sep hike odds return, the bounce can be reversed at any moment.

Crude’s pullback coexists with record diesel prices β€” refined products are the frontline of inflation pressure; Iran sanctions “showing effect” means supply risk is far from resolved.

AI narrative gets cold winds: Thailand halting data centers and US school districts banning generative AI contrast with China’s MIIT policy support for AI SMEs.

PBOC reaffirms moderately loose stance, domestic liquidity is safe; A-shares fell on 2.03T turnover with RMB 43.4B main-fund outflow, showing funds de-risking amid high-level divergence.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 20:30 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ US Aug Nonfarm Payrolls: prior -23K, expected +56K (Street range +80K to -25K)
  • 20:30 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ US Aug Unemployment Rate: prior 4.1%; Avg Hourly Earnings YoY prior 3.2%, expected 3.0%
  • 17:00 Eurozone Jul Retail Sales MoM: prior -0.3%, expected +0.3%
  • 22:00 FX option expiries: 13 strikes >$1B across EUR/GBP/JPY/AUD
  • Next week: ECB rate decision (market prices 25bp, economists call it possibly the “last hike”); US CPI