πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold 4479.49 (+0.14%), consolidating in the 4466-4487 range during Asia session; SGE Gold T+D up 1.75% to 968.71 CNY/gram, Silver T+D +1.85%
  • WTI Crude 89.77 (+0.15%), seesawing around the $90 level with firm geopolitical premium
  • HK stocks surging: Hang Seng +2%, Hang Seng Tech +2.78%; major internet names rally β€” Baidu, Kuaishou, JD +4%+, Meituan, Xiaomi, Bilibili +3%+; gold miners open higher (Zijin Mining +4%+)
  • A-shares open higher: Shanghai +0.34% to 3955.55, Shenzhen +0.74%, ChiNext +0.97%; digital currency/cross-border payment sectors lead, fintech ETFs dominate the top-10 gainers
  • Taiwan TAIEX opens +1.52% to 46,556.93

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  1. EU joins US pressure campaign on Iran: Treasury Secretary Bessent says the EU has formally joined US economic pressure actions against Iran, praising its “strong and timely stance” β€” the Strait of Hormuz standoff widens beyond a bilateral US-Iran issue (09:24)
  2. Nvidia in talks to invest $2.5B in Thinking Machines Lab: reported discussions to take a stake, extending its investment footprint from AI compute into frontier-model research (09:11)
  3. NHTSA reviewing Tesla Cybercab: spokesperson confirms the agency is in contact with Tesla regarding the Cybercab launch and “assessing the situation”; Cybercab is now operating in Austin, and HK lidar maker Hesai jumps 10%+ (09:07/09:44)
  4. Zelensky confirms US envoy will mediate Russia-Ukraine talks: envoy to visit both Kyiv and Moscow, a turning point for the stalled negotiations; Trump simultaneously pressures Europe to “pay back” $100B+ in military aid (09:35)
  5. Yen approaches 155: JPMorgan warns that if USD/JPY breaks below 155, ~$102.6B of open yen shorts could be forced to cover, potentially driving the pair toward 142 (09:13)
  6. PBOC nets 1.41T CNY weekly liquidity drain: no OMO operations today, net withdrawal of 20B CNY on the day; a sharp reversal from last week’s 806B injection (09:23)
  7. Oman rejects Iran’s Strait toll proposal: reports say Oman declined Iran’s joint toll plan for the Strait of Hormuz to avoid US military strike risk (08:33, continued)

🧭 Situation Assessment

Geopolitics retakes the lead this hour: the EU joining the economic pressure campaign shifts the Hormuz game from bilateral to a US-EU front, and the $90 oil level is being contested on supply-risk pricing. \n

Nvidia’s $2.5B move toward Thinking Machines Lab follows its $12.93B Hugging Face acquisition β€” AI capex is spilling from compute into model distribution and frontier research, broadening the industry’s beneficiary base. \n

Asia risk appetite is strong: HK, Taiwan, and A-shares rally together, echoing last night’s US gains of 1%+, with markets choosing the bullish side ahead of nonfarm payrolls. \n

The yen approaching 155 is a new risk: a break triggering short covering could reverse carry trades and rattle global risk assets, echoing the early-August playbook β€” worth watching. \n

Gold holds above 4470 in Asia with T+D up 1.75%, supported by both geopolitical hedging and a softer dollar, but selling pressure above 4500 remains; chasing longs before payrolls invites volatility. \n

The PBOC drained 1.4T+ CNY this week yet A-shares still opened higher β€” incremental liquidity and policy expectations (10-department SME plan, Phase-II national fund) are offsetting the tightening drag. \n

Tonight’s payrolls (est. +56K) remain the key swing factor: a big miss would further cut September hike odds, favoring stocks, bonds, and gold; a beat would force a re-pricing of risk appetite. \n

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 20:30 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ US August Nonfarm Payrolls: prior -23K, est. +56K; unemployment rate expected flat at 4.1%
  • 20:30 US August Average Hourly Earnings YoY: prior 3.2%, est. 3.0%
  • 17:00 Eurozone July Retail Sales MoM: prior -0.3%, est. +0.3%
  • Next week: US August CPI β€” Waller says September rate decision “highly dependent” on it
  • 9/11: Japan MoF auctions JPY 3.5T short-term bills