πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4,410.72 (+0.53%), range 4,381.10-4,412.34, broke above 4,400 approaching 4,412
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 89.70 (+0.65%), range 88.86-89.73, touched 91 intraday

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  1. Record day at the Strait of Hormuz: US escorted a record 40 merchant ships carrying ~18M barrels of oil through the Strait on Tuesday while striking nearly 60 Iranian military targets; administration shifting focus from nuclear facilities to conventional strikes.
  2. US Middle East deployment extended to 2027: WSJ reports Defense Secretary Hegseth, who promised a quick decisive strike, is quietly extending deployments as the conflict drags on.
  3. Kuwait under Iranian attack: Kuwaiti air defenses responding to Iranian missiles and drones; nationwide alarms sounded.
  4. Gold breaks $4,400: Spot gold hit ~4,412 on geopolitical safe-haven demand plus central bank buying (Dutch central bank moved 78t gold to London); platinum +2% intraday.
  5. Extreme USD exposure: Global investors’ hedge ratio on USD risk fell to 41%, lowest since 2015; any re-hedging could fuel a new round of dollar selling across six major markets.
  6. China Aug composite PMI 52.1 (prev 50.8), services PMI 51.4 (prev 50.4); PBOC net drained RMB 103B today.
  7. Moonshot AI (Kimi) confidentially filed for HK IPO: reportedly submitted A1 filing this week.
  8. A-share tape: banks hit new highs, gold miners opened higher, CPO/semis active; new listing N-Jintai +208%.

🧭 Situation Assessment

  • The US-Iran conflict is sliding from “quick strike” into prolonged attrition; Hormuz escorts becoming routine gives oil a fundamental floor, with $89-91 the current battleground range.

  • Gold’s break above 4,400 shifts resistance higher; with geopolitical and central-bank demand in tandem, the dip-buying logic is strengthening.

  • The record-low USD hedge ratio is a hidden risk β€” any re-hedging amplifies dollar weakness, favoring gold and non-USD assets; a key variable for coming weeks.

  • China’s composite PMI re-accelerated and the PBOC drained liquidity, suggesting domestic policy is on hold; A-share banks at record highs reflect persistent defensive positioning.

  • Tonight’s US jobless claims + ISM non-manufacturing PMI are the final rehearsal before Friday’s NFP; after the ADP miss, markets are hypersensitive to labor data.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data (Beijing time)

  • 14:30 Switzerland Aug CPI
  • 15:50 France Aug services PMI final
  • 15:55 Germany Aug services PMI final
  • 16:30 UK Aug services PMI final
  • 17:00 Eurozone Jul PPI
  • 20:30 US initial jobless claims (exp 205K, prev 203K)
  • 20:30 US Jul trade balance
  • 21:45 US Aug S&P Global services PMI final
  • 22:00 US Aug ISM non-manufacturing PMI (exp 54.2)
  • 22:30 US EIA natural gas inventories
  • Sunday OPEC+ meeting (likely to hold Oct output policy)

(Focus: 20:30 jobless claims, 22:00 ISM non-manufacturing PMI β€” pre-NFP rehearsal)