πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold XAUUSD: $4,308.90/oz, down 19.88 (-0.46%). Open 4,333.12, range 4,282.53–4,335.68. Roughly flat vs. last hour (4,308.50); bids keep appearing near the intraday low of 4,282.53, price churning just above the 4,300 handle.
  • WTI Crude USOIL: $88.853/bbl, down 0.520 (-0.582%). Open 89.235, range 88.531–90.756. Roughly flat vs. last hour (89.023); renewed US military action against Iran fails to trigger a jump, geopolitics premium stays numb.

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  1. Berkshire CEO Greg Abel confirms: the ~$10B stake in Alphabet (GOOG) was initiated by Warren Buffett himself; Abel was invited in May to help push it through. He called AI data centers a “major opportunity” for Berkshire’s energy business and said Berkshire is willing to meet the power demand of hyperscale data centers. He added Berkshire still plans to issue bonds in Japan at an appropriate time and intends to hold Japanese trading houses for decades. The biggest increment this hour β€” first executive confirmation of Berkshire’s GOOG stake, plus first-hand confirmation of AI power demand and the Japan buildout.

  2. Trump: US forces are striking Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz; if Iran retaliates it will face “stronger and more intense” strikes; the final strikes are being prepared and Iran will be left with “very little” once they end. Rhetoric escalates further, yet oil shows no meaningful reaction.

  3. TSMC Co-COO Hou Yong-ching: demand for chip-making equipment has nearly doubled versus end of last year; quarterly equipment procurement estimates have been raised to roughly twice year-ago levels as the company expands capacity to meet AI demand. Direct confirmation that AI capex is flowing into equipment; Stifel initiates coverage on TSM with a Buy rating and $515 target.

  4. Russian Deputy PM Novak: Rosneft is taking all measures to maximize oil production; Russia’s Kirishi refinery suspended processing after a Ukrainian drone strike. Supply picture stays mixed β€” one adding, one subtracting.

  5. Chevron plans $7B over five years to more than double Venezuelan output to 600k bbl/day, with project costs expected below $20/bbl; Citi and Mizuho both raise Dell targets to $600. Supermajors bet on Venezuela’s recovery while AI-hardware earnings delivery gets bank follow-through.

  6. Iran’s nuclear program status unclear: an internal IAEA report says the agency cannot verify where near-weapons-grade enriched uranium is stored because Iran continues to deny inspectors access. Growing monitoring gap β€” a medium-term source of geopolitical uncertainty.

🧭 Situation Assessment

Berkshire’s $10B GOOG position being initiated by Buffett himself and confirmed by Abel is the highest-information event this hour β€” the Oracle’s directional bet on a core AI asset speaks louder than any research note.

Abel calling AI data centers a “major opportunity” for Berkshire Energy cross-validates TSMC’s equipment demand doubling: AI’s energy appetite and capex are still accelerating, with evidence piling up across the chain.

Yet oil remains numb at $88.9 even as Trump threatens “final strikes” β€” the market has fully priced in Iran rhetoric; without third-party evidence of real supply disruption or shipping interruptions, a second geopolitical premium leg looks unlikely.

Gold is rangebound at $4,308, with safe-haven bids offset by elevated Treasury yields; direction awaits tonight’s ADP print and the US open.

Treasury selling pressure and the structural retreat of Japanese investors from overseas bonds remain unresolved; tonight’s US session tests risk assets against the high-oil, high-rate, high-valuation backdrop.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 20:15 Beijing time tonight: US August ADP employment change
  • 21:45: Bank of Canada rate decision
  • 22:00: US July factory orders MoM
  • 22:30: US EIA crude oil inventories (week to Aug 28)
  • 21:30 tonight: US market open β€” watch Berkshire holdings moves, AI sector, and energy names