📊 Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): $4,308.50/oz, down $20.28 (-0.47%). Open 4,333.12, range 4,282.53–4,335.68. Down ~$6 from last hour (4,314.73); bids emerging near the intraday low of 4,282.53, consolidating above the 4,300 mark.
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): $89.023/bbl, down $0.350 (-0.392%). Open 89.235, range 88.531–90.756. Up ~$0.2 from last hour (88.831), as airstrike escalation and rising Iraqi exports offset each other.
  • Europe: Stoxx 600 at one-month lows; euro at two-week low of 1.1566; UK 30-year gilt yield at 5.921%, highest since 1998.

🔥 Key News This Hour

  1. US-Iran airstrikes escalate, European forward power prices keep climbing: French forward annual baseload power contracts rose 6.2% to €78.25/MWh, a 20-year high, tracking natural gas contracts at 43-month highs. The EU approved a power supply security mechanism for Germany worth up to €35 billion; German police launched a counter-terrorism investigation after an attack near a power plant. Last hour’s power-price warning has now moved into policy-response territory.

  2. US diesel prices rose to their highest since April: national average retail price $5.688/gallon. Trump is pressing refiners to expand capacity, but the US refining system is running near full utilization — analysts believe Trump may even consider banning fuel exports. Energy inflation pressure is approaching the political decision layer.

  3. Ryanair warned winter jet fuel could hit $140/barrel and cut winter capacity to reduce exposure to unhedged fuel prices. Refined-product cost pressure is now transmitting to the real economy.

  4. Bond selloff accelerates: UK 30-year gilt yield rose to 5.921%, highest since 1998; 10-year at 5.29%, a high since August 2007; Italy’s 2-year touched 3.22%, highest since 2024. European stocks fell to one-month lows; euro options saw the longest hedging streak since 2017. Rising energy prices and interest rates are resonating, pressuring risk assets.

  5. Israeli Defense Minister Katz: military action has significantly weakened Iran, its nuclear program is “completely destroyed,” and the US is currently leading strikes on Iran; Houthis fired missiles at Saudi-backed force staging areas in Yemen’s Taiz province. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry urged the US and Iran to return to the negotiating table. Geopolitical maneuvering continues — negotiation signals and escalation coexist.

  6. Iraq’s August oil exports jumped from ~1.35 million bpd to ~2.34 million bpd (Iran approved its tankers through the Strait of Hormuz), with September loadings expected to rise further. A real supply-side variable that partially offsets the tension premium.

  7. Germany’s cabinet approved a €10 billion income tax reform; Norway’s $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund plans to increase investments in unlisted assets to improve diversification amid rising global political risk.

🧭 Situation Assessment

The energy-inflation-bond chain has tightened further this hour: airstrike escalation pushed European power prices to 20-year highs, diesel and jet fuel prices are rising in succession, and long-end government bond yields are simultaneously refreshing multi-decade highs.

European power at record highs plus the €35 billion power security mechanism show the supply shock has moved from market narrative into policy response — energy inflation is becoming a real bill.

Crude’s reaction to the airstrikes remains muted, barely moving around $89, but the refining end (diesel, jet fuel) is already pricing pressure ahead of crude — the product-side stress is more real than the crude-side.

Gold pulled back to $4,308 as safe-haven buying temporarily loses ground to the Treasury selloff; the near-term question is whether the 4,300–4,282 support band holds.

With bond yields rising across the board, tonight’s ADP report and the US market open will test risk assets’ tolerance for the combination of higher oil and higher rates.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 20:15 (Beijing time) tonight: US August ADP employment change
  • 21:45 tonight: Bank of Canada rate decision
  • 22:00 tonight: US July factory orders (MoM)
  • 22:30 tonight: US EIA crude oil inventories (week to Aug 28)
  • 21:30 tonight: US market open — watch energy sector and bond market action