πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold XAUUSD: 4434.53 (-0.44%), day range 4472 / 4396, pulling back from highs
  • WTI Crude USOIL: 85.29 (+3.06%), day range 85.88 / 83.35, geopolitical premium returning

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  • NVIDIA to invest $3.5B in MediaTek (convertible bonds); MediaTek joins the NVLink Fusion ecosystem to build an AI edge-to-cloud platform β€” another AI supply-chain consolidation after last hour’s AMD+Cisco compute deal.
  • Trump says the US will respond to Iran’s overnight missile attack on US forces: “We will hit them very hard”; he later posted that Iran is “dead” and a failed state β€” escalation from military strikes to rhetoric.
  • US Treasury yields hit new highs: 10Y at 4.75% (highest since Jan 2025), 30Y up 4bp to 5.25% β€” hawkish pricing meets supply pressure.
  • Germany Aug CPI flash +2.9% YoY (prior 2.8%), highest since April, strengthening the ECB’s case for a September hike; but below the 3.1% consensus.
  • BofA Securities: August economic data could alter the Fed’s September hike outlook; market odds of a September hike near 60%.
  • US DoD signs contracts with General Dynamics and Lockheed Martin: PAC-3 Patriot capacity to double, THAAD capacity to triple.
  • Others: LG Energy Solution to source lithium carbonate from Arkansas (8,000 mt/yr for 10 years); Apple’s AirPods 5 as early as September, new iPad mini expected by end of October.

🧭 Situation Assessment

The biggest marginal change this hour is crude: WTI rebounded sharply from a 83.35 intraday low to 85.29, up ~3.1% from prior close, as Iran downed a US drone, struck a base in Jordan, and threatened to close the Strait β€” the geopolitical risk premium is clearly returning.

Trump’s vow to “hit them very hard” and his “Iran is dead” rhetoric, plus the DoD missile-capacity contracts, suggest US-Iran confrontation may escalate rather than cool β€” the key variable to track for oil and safe havens.

Treasury yields are the other main line: 10Y above 4.75%, a near-20-month high; 30Y above 5.25%; hawkish trades with ~60% September-hike odds keep pressuring risk-asset valuations.

Gold at 4434 is pulling back with a ~76-point intraday range, as geopolitical safe-haven demand offsets higher rates β€” direction hinges on Iran developments and this week’s inflation data.

The AI theme stays active: NVIDIA’s $3.5B stake in MediaTek follows last hour’s AMD/Cisco 250MW deal β€” the AI capex narrative is intact, but rising long-end yields are a headwind for high-valuation tech.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 22:30 US August Dallas Fed manufacturing index
  • Tuesday (9/1) Bank of Israel rate decision (Reuters poll expects a pause)
  • Friday (9/4) US August nonfarm payrolls
  • Next week US August CPI (Warsh says it will set the tone for the September meeting)