π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-29 10:00 CST
Warsh turns hawkish at Jackson Hole, 9-month rate-hike odds jump to nearly 60%, gold crashes over 3% on Friday to $4,454, down 3.24% for the week; OpenAI ends partnership with Cursor after its acquisition by SpaceX, direct access ends Nov 12; WSJ reports US Patriot missile and ATACMS stockpiles in Europe have fallen below critical levels.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold (XAUUSD): $4,454.28/oz, down $147.35 (-3.20%) on Friday, -3.24% for the week, worst single day since early June
- WTI Crude (USOIL): $82.76/bbl, -0.24%, geopolitical premium continues to fade on Hormuz easing hopes
- Prices are Friday’s US close (Beijing time 08-29 04:59, Saturday)
π₯ Top News This Hour
- Warsh hawkish shock: Fed Chair Warsh stressed “price stability first” at Jackson Hole, saying inflation remains broad and policy will not pivot until it clearly returns to 2%; market now prices ~60% odds of a September hike and 90%+ before December. Gold fell over 3% on Friday to $4,454.28, down 3.24% for the week (published 09:08)
- OpenAI ends Cursor partnership: After Cursor’s acquisition by SpaceX, OpenAI said direct access to its models ends Nov 12
- US-Europe munitions crunch (WSJ): US Patriot missile and ATACMS stockpiles in Europe have fallen below critical levels
- Middle East tracker: US says it continues the naval blockade on Iran, 82 commercial ships diverted; Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is open, US hopes to widen the main channel by mid-September
- Russia-Ukraine conflict: Russia claims strikes on Ukrainian missile depots, Kyiv hit by multiple explosions with air-raid sirens; Ukrainian ag minister says Russian attacks destroyed 90% of food-chain logistics
- CFTC enforcement: Former White House teleprompter operator fined $172,539 for illegal trading on prediction markets using advance access to Trump speech information
π§ Situation Assessment
Warsh’s hawkish stance at Jackson Hole is the week’s strongest macro signal, with the market pivoting from rate-cut expectations to pricing a September hike β precious metals bear the brunt.
If the September hike lands, pressure on gold and long-dated bonds continues, though Goldman maintains its $4,900/oz year-end gold target citing upside risk β a clear divergence between bulls and bears.
Crude is suppressed by Hormuz easing expectations; the US military says mines have been cleared and Goldman estimates two-thirds of Middle East oil exports have resumed, with the geopolitical premium fading fast.
Markets are closed today (Saturday); pricing focus shifts to next week’s US jobs data and the evolution of rate-hike expectations ahead of the September FOMC.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- No major data today (Saturday)
- Next week: US August non-farm payrolls (typically first Friday of September) and ISM manufacturing PMI
- September FOMC approaching; market currently prices ~60% odds of a September hike