πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold XAUUSD: 4,604.82 (+0.07%) | Range 4,571.80 - 4,614.67
  • WTI Crude USOIL: 82.46 (-0.60%) | Range 81.91 - 83.10
  • Spot Palladium: up nearly 3%, at $1,390.88/oz

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  • US-Iran conflict hits six-month mark, Wall Street split on oil: Iran’s war has been going on for six months; US naval escorts have helped crude exports recover. Goldman Sachs believes the market is self-adjusting via “dark shipping” and other means, while banks led by RBC hold a different view.
  • Ukraine strikes Russia’s Yaroslavl refinery: Ukraine’s General Staff said it attacked one of Russia’s largest fuel production bases overnight, with this round of strikes triggering a new wave of gasoline shortages nationwide.
  • Iran’s foreign ministry strongly condemns new US sanctions: Calling US economic measures “international crimes” and “state terrorism,” urging countries to avoid implementing US sanctions.
  • European gas prices break above €70/MWh: First time since March 19, reflecting tight energy supply.
  • Kremlin: Putin to meet Lukashenko on Aug 29; Peskov says there are currently no new proposals to restart negotiations, and Russian forces will continue advancing.

🧭 Situation Assessment

  • Gold is consolidating in the 4,570-4,615 range at highs, supported by US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk plus safe-haven demand; the short-term direction remains unclear.

  • Crude is slightly lower but broadly firm; the refinery strike plus surging European gas point to persistent supply-side disruption, and with the six-month mark dividing opinion on oil, volatility is expected to rise.

  • China’s reform of commercial housing presale-to-existing-sale sales is a policy expectation measure with limited short-term impact on the property chain; execution in the medium-to-long term matters.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Next Monday: China’s August official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI
  • Next week: US August non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate
  • Next week: OPEC+ ministerial meeting
  • Near term: Fed official Kevin Warsh speech (prediction markets price ~90% probability he mentions inflation)