π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-28 12:00 CST
Goldman says Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to about two-thirds of pre-war levels as Hormuz transits rise; Trump administration reportedly weighing a new round of large-scale semiconductor tariffs; SK Hynix breaks ground on a $4B US HBM plant; Yen approaches 160 again as the "month" of joint US-Japan intervention fails to reverse long-term bearish factors; Warsh's Jackson Hole speech at 10pm Beijing time is the key event tonight.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold XAUUSD: 4,579.79, down 0.47% (day range 4,611.5 / 4,575.2), easing back below 4,580
- WTI Crude USOIL: 82.455, down 0.61% (day range 83.10 / 82.39), roughly flat vs. last hour
- China futures: SC crude and lithium carbonate up ~4% in morning session, apples +3%, coking coal +3%; rapeseed -4%
- A-shares midday: Shanghai +0.08%, Shenzhen -0.14%, ChiNext -0.32%; agriculture sector strong
- India 10Y yield rose to 6.9136%, highest since June 12
π₯ Key News This Hour
- Goldman: Persian Gulf oil exports recovered to ~2/3 of pre-war levels β driven by rising Hormuz Strait transits, the latest quantified sign that supply disruption is gradually repairing.
- Trump administration reportedly weighing a new round of large-scale semiconductor tariffs β policy uncertainty for the chip sector is heating up again.
- SK Hynix doubling down on US HBM β broke ground on a $4B US plant; says it sees no clear signs of a memory market downturn and expects shortages to last through end-2030; SK plans to sell 49% of its Ulsan AI data center to KKR and others.
- Yen approaching 160 again β a month after joint US-Japan intervention, strategists warn official action only delayed short-term speculative selling; long-term bearish factors remain intact and another intervention is feared.
- Reuters poll: most economists expect the RBNZ to hike again next Wednesday, with another hike in the following quarter.
- Japan’s 2Y auction bid-to-cover fell to 2.97 (from 3.63 in July), with tail demand the weakest since 2016 β reflecting concerns over further BOJ tightening.
π§ Assessment
Goldman’s quantification that Gulf exports are back to two-thirds of pre-war levels suggests the peak of the geopolitical supply shock may have passed, likely flattening crude’s upside slope.
But the divergence between SC crude and WTI persists, with the Chinese market pricing residual risk more aggressively and short-term volatility still elevated.
Semiconductor tariff talk plus SK Hynix expansion put “supply tightness” and “policy disruption” in play simultaneously for the AI/memory complex, raising directional uncertainty.
The yen is hovering near 160 without breaking through, with the market oscillating between intervention expectations and rate-differential reality β volatility is easier to rise than fall.
Tonight’s 22:00 Warsh Jackson Hole speech is the biggest variable; JPMorgan warns the market will likely be disappointed if it expects rate-path guidance.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- Tonight 22:00 (Beijing): Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech β
- Next Wednesday: RBNZ rate decision (market expects second straight hike)
- G20 Finance Ministers meeting (Asheville, NC, US)