Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-08-28
NVIDIA surged 8.7% overnight, adding $442B in market cap for the second-largest single-day gain in history, but reports later emerged that it paused some AI cloud revenue-sharing deals (worth ~$36B) and faces antitrust concerns; US-Iran talks are stuck again over the June MOU, while Hormuz is temporarily navigable and Gulf crude exports have recovered to 70% of pre-conflict levels; Trump signed an executive order renaming Lake Ontario the "American Lake" as Canada-US trade talks broke down, and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole debut tonight takes center stage.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4601.36, -0.27 (-0.01%) β traded flat in a narrow 4600-4611 range overnight
- WTI Crude (USOIL): 82.956, -0.003 (-0.004%) β consolidating in 82.8-83.1, with temporary Hormuz passage capping the geopolitical premium
- NVIDIA (NVDA.O): closed +8.7% Thursday, adding $442B in market cap β the second-largest single-day gain ever for a stock, its biggest daily jump since April 2025
- ETF Flows: SPDR Gold Trust +1.141t to 1046.636t; iShares Silver Trust -16.87t to 15345.86t
π₯ Key Overnight News
- NVIDIA’s record day, but cracks emerge after hours: The stock surged 8.7% Thursday adding $442B in market cap, with Trump praising its results and FY2028 revenue forecast. However, WSJ reports NVIDIA paused some credit-for-revenue-share deals with AI cloud providers (worth ~$36B in commitments), with some employees worried about antitrust scrutiny; NVIDIA’s spokesperson said the AI cloud revenue-share model launched in July is “still in place”
- Anthropic weighed a ~$7B MatX acquisition: Sources say Anthropic discussed buying AI chip startup MatX for ~$7B to speed custom hardware work, ultimately abandoning the deal and considering a partnership instead
- US-Iran talks hit a new impasse: Trump says Iran is “begging for a deal” and Iran’s top security official says it has a conditions list ready, allowing temporary passage via a specific Hormuz lane β but reports say the Trump administration refuses to return to the June MOU, leaving talks without even a starting point
- Middle East tensions persist: Israel struck near Damascus suburbs with multiple explosions reported in the Syrian capital; Israel downed a Hezbollah drone and expanded West Bank deployments; a 6.2-magnitude quake hit the Gulf of Aden
- Canada-US trade war escalates, talks collapse: Trump signed an executive order renaming Lake Ontario the “American Lake,” which Canada refuses to adopt; Commerce Secretary Lutnick blamed Carney for shelving a deal for political support, Canadian economists say Canada can absorb the latest tariffs, and Canada’s ambassador says no deal is acceptable unless the auto sector survives
- Oil & OPEC moves: Kuwait and Qatar have boosted crude exports via the Strait of Hormuz to 70% of pre-conflict levels; Venezuela is seriously considering leaving OPEC to deepen US ties, with Washington nearing a deal for long-term access to Venezuelan oil reserves
- Fed September odds: CME FedWatch shows a 63.5% probability of holding rates in September and 36.5% for a 25bp hike; three regional Fed presidents (Schmid, Goolsbee, Hammack) collectively flagged sticky inflation ahead of Jackson Hole
- FTC probes YouTube’s social media policies: The FTC is reportedly investigating whether Alphabet’s YouTube violated consumer-protection law in suspending user accounts
- Other: Citadel Securities posted a record $7.3B in Q2 trading revenue (~3x year-ago); the Trump administration is considering raising 2027 biofuel quotas by ~500M gallons; China’s MOFCOM responded to a possible additional 7.5% US tariff on Chinese goods
π§ Market Assessment
NVIDIA’s $442B single-day market-cap gain ranks as the second-largest ever, and the AI compute narrative continues to dominate US equity risk appetite.
But after-hours reports that NVIDIA paused some AI cloud revenue-share deals, plus antitrust worries, point to short-term volatility risk.
US-Iran talks are stuck again over the June MOU, yet Hormuz is temporarily navigable and Gulf exports have recovered to 70% of pre-conflict levels, so the geopolitical premium is unlikely to push oil sharply higher.
The Canada-US trade breakdown, coupled with political gestures like renaming Lake Ontario, raises friction β but Ottawa’s signals that it can withstand the tariffs suggest limited market impact.
With Jackson Hole opening tonight and Fed Chair Warsh’s debut alongside hawkish regional officials, USD and Treasury volatility could widen, so watch how that transmits to equities.
π Today’s Key Economic Calendar
- 07:30 Japan July unemployment rate: expected 2.5% (already released)
- 14:45 France Aug CPI preliminary, Q2 GDP final: inflation and growth check
- 15:00 Switzerland KOF leading indicator, Spain Aug CPI preliminary
- 15:55 Germany Aug seasonally adjusted unemployment rate: expected 6.4%
- 17:00 Eurozone Aug economic sentiment: expected 97.5
- 20:30 Canada June GDP: expected +0.2% m/m
- 21:45 US Aug Chicago PMI: expected 57.9
- 22:00 US Aug Michigan consumer sentiment final, 1-yr inflation expectations final, 2026 nonfarm payroll benchmark revision preliminary
- Today-Tomorrow Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium: Fed Chair Warsh’s debut (opens tonight Beijing time)