📊 Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4625.79, easing slightly from 4629.88 last hour, still up ~0.68% on the day, consolidating near highs
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 81.31, down 0.15% on the day, rebounding from 80.93 last hour

🔥 Top News This Hour

  • BOJ Deputy Governor turns hawkish: Says timely rate hikes are needed to avoid being forced into sharp tightening later, noting financial conditions remain accommodative; the market now prices ~90% odds of a September hike
  • Hormuz mine-clearance “he-said, she-said”: Trump insists the strait’s mines have been fully cleared, but allies privately question that claim, leaving full recovery of the global energy chokepoint uncertain; Kpler data shows transit ticked up to 10 vessels Wednesday
  • Iraq issues second tender for outbound-loaded crude: SOMO offers September-loading Basra crude delivered outside the Strait via ship-to-ship transfer, as supply seeks alternative routes around the waterway
  • Dollar-devaluation concerns support gold: Gold edges higher Thursday as attention turns to Fed Chair Warsh’s much-anticipated speech this week; OANDA cites the dollar-weakness narrative alongside budget worries
  • Foreign net selling of Japanese stocks at near two-month high: Net outflows of ¥764.1bn in the week to Aug 22 as debt worries push global bond yields higher, pressuring tech and growth stocks
  • RBI steps up intervention to support the rupee: Bigger FX reserves give it more room to cope with oil-price pressure, shifting to a more sustained intervention mode over the past month
  • USTR clarifies Section 338 tariffs: Tariffs apply only to 5% of imports from Canada, less than 0.19% of total US imports
  • Novo Nordisk files for oral Wegovy: Submits an application for oral Wegovy for weight management

🧭 Situation Assessment

Gold consolidates around 4625, easing slightly from last hour; the dollar-weakening narrative and the approaching Warsh speech underpin the bullish case, but profit-taking at highs remains a risk.

Crude rebounded to 81.31 from below 81; the Hormuz mine-clearance dispute and Iraq’s outbound-loading tender show supply seeking alternative routes around the waterway, with the supply-demand tug-of-war ongoing.

With BOJ’s September hike odds near 90% and foreign net selling of Japanese stocks at a near two-month high, rising global bond yields’ pressure on growth valuations warrants caution.

The RBI’s shift to sustained rupee intervention widens divergence among Asian currencies; Fed Chair Warsh’s speech this week could be the key catalyst for the dollar and Treasuries.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 20:30 (CST): US weekly initial jobless claims
  • Jackson Hole symposium ongoing; watch Fed Chair Warsh’s speech
  • Canada Section 338 tariff developments and trade-friction outlook