Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-08-27
Nvidia's Q2 earnings beat big, with a rare one-year-ahead outlook of 70% growth for FY2028; stock swung from -3% to +4.5% after hours, lifting Nasdaq futures about 1%. Amazon will deploy roughly 2 million Nvidia AI chips in 2027-2028. Iran and Oman reached a deal on Hormuz Strait toll sharing, easing geopolitical risk premium, though Iran's deputy FM says a preemptive strike on the US remains an option.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4620.28, +25.81 (+0.56%) β β touched 4610 overnight; silver +1% at 68.80
- WTI Crude (USOIL): 81.31, -0.13 (-0.16%) β β Hormuz toll dispute shows signs of easing, risk premium slightly lower
- Nasdaq Futures: up about 1% in early Thursday trading, boosted by Nvidia’s +4.5% after-hours surge
π₯ Overnight Key News
- Nvidia earnings beat big, rare one-year-ahead guidance: FY2027 Q2 revenue $96.2B, net income $59.7B, both beating estimates. Company unusually gave FY2028 outlook, confident of 70% growth; stock initially fell 3% after hours before turning up 4.5%
- Supply remains the bottleneck: CFO says supply will constrain growth at least through FY2028, memory prices “extremely high”; Q3 gross margin guide 74% Β±50bp, Q4 bottoming at 71%-72%; Vera Rubin seen contributing ~20% of Q3 data-center revenue
- Amazon doubles down on compute: Amazon to deploy about 2 million Nvidia high-end AI chips in 2027-2028
- Fed rate expectations: CME FedWatch shows 63.5% odds of a hold in September, 36.5% for a 25bp hike; July core PCE in line but sticky, lifting hike expectations slightly
- Iran-Oman Hormuz “revenue sharing” deal: IRGC says agreement reached with Oman on Hormuz control and revenue split, blaming US for blocking talks; Iran deputy FM says preemptive strike on the US remains an option
- Russia-Ukraine tensions rising: peace talks described as “back to square one”; Russia reportedly considering expanding conventional ballistic missile strikes, downtown Kyiv could be a target
- Fed Governor Cook pushes back: vows to fight Trump’s attempt to remove her from the Fed; lawyer says White House letter rests on unproven allegations
- Jackson Hole underway: global central banks converge on guarding against a second inflation wave; Fed Chair Warsh’s speech is the key risk for Treasuries
π§ Outlook
Nvidia delivered earnings that “beat but failed to thrill”: all numbers topped, yet the after-hours swing from -3% to +4.5% shows the market remains split on valuation and supply constraints.
A 70% growth guide coexisting with “persistent supply limits” keeps the AI compute thesis intact, but the declining margin path (Q4 trough at 71%-72%) warrants caution.
The Iran-Oman Hormuz toll-sharing deal is a landmark easing signal overnight, trimming oil and cooling gold’s advance.
But Iran’s deputy FM saying a preemptive strike “remains an option” shows tensions are far from resolved β energy risk premium can re-ignite anytime.
Jackson Hole is the week’s biggest focus; hawkish or vague remarks from Warsh would pressure Treasuries and growth valuations.
π Today’s Key Data Calendar
- TBD: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium
- 14:00 CST: Germany Sept GfK Consumer Confidence
- 15:00 CST: MOFCOM Regular Press Conference
- 19:30 CST: ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- 20:30 CST: US Initial Jobless Claims