πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4628.10, down 0.65%, retreating from the intraday high of 4673 as safe-haven demand cools with easing Middle East tensions
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 79.50, down 1.47%, falling more than 3% intraday as Iran-Oman talks boost expectations of reopening the Strait of Hormuz

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  • NVIDIA reports earnings tonight after US close: shares have fallen after four consecutive reports; options market is pricing in ~6% move. Focus on AI revenue growth, Blackwell delivery pace, and China export issues. Morgan Stanley initiated NVIDIA credit coverage at Neutral, citing hard-to-measure AI ecosystem financing risk
  • Oil crashes over 3%: Iran-Oman talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz make progress, easing supply concerns and cooling global inflation expectations; the oil drop also lowered market expectations for a BoE rate hike this year
  • Fed discount rate meeting minutes: 4 regional banks favored a hike; Collins says she supports holding now but may hike soon if inflation doesn’t improve; Barkin warns rising US debt will eventually face a “reckoning”
  • Li Auto Q2 results miss: revenue of RMB 25.7B below the expected RMB 26.6B, operating loss of RMB 2.3B, Q3 delivery guidance of 95k-100k vehicles; stock down over 3% pre-market
  • ECB September hike expectations rise: energy volatility from the US-Iran conflict pushes the ECB toward a 25bp hike in September, with hawkish officials like Schnabel emphasizing inflation vigilance
  • “Bottom-fishing” funds near JPY 160: BoJ rate-hike expectations reheat; Australia’s second-largest pension fund is contrarian-long yen and trimming US Treasuries
  • Others: SenseTime posts first IFRS-basis profit in H1; Tongwei reports RMB 5.119B H1 loss; Microsoft and Humain announce long-term strategic partnership to advance Saudi Arabia’s AI transformation; Shanghai unveils 15th Five-Year Plan for strategic emerging industries

🧭 Situation Assessment

The oil retreat is meaningfully easing global inflation expectations, a tailwind for risk assets β€” but beware a sharp rebound if Hormuz talks falter.

Hawkish voices are rising inside the Fed (4 regional banks favor a hike), leaving rate-path uncertainty as the biggest variable for US equities.

Tonight’s NVIDIA earnings after US close is the week’s biggest event, with options pricing a 6% move; the result will directly set the near-term direction of AI names and the broader market.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Tonight (Wednesday after US close): NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 earnings β€” bellwether for global AI stocks
  • Fed officials’ recent remarks (Collins et al.) on the September rate path
  • Tomorrow: US durable goods orders, EIA crude inventories and other routine data