Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-26 13:00
Hormuz transits plunge: only 5 commercial vessels passed Tuesday versus a 10-day average of 15, and Iran's tough conditions keep supply uncertainty alive, with diesel's structural shortage emerging as the new focus; LME copper hits a six-month high on inventory outflows; France's budget deadlock plus decades-high global bond yields test investor patience; CIA director reportedly makes secret visit to Russia.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold: 4640.41 USD/oz (-0.39%), range 4630-4674, extending the Asia-session pullback
- WTI Crude: 80.18 USD/bbl (-0.63%), slipped below 80 in early trade then recovered back above the level
π₯ Key News This Hour
- Hormuz transits plunge: only 5 commercial vessels passed Tuesday, far below the 10-day average of 15; Iran’s tough conditions and brief temporary passage arrangements keep supply uncertainty alive
- Oil focus shifts to diesel: Pickering Energy Partners analyst says oil is a global problem but diesel is the bigger one; the Hormuz “joint corridor” is unlikely to change fundamentals for now
- LME copper hits six-month high: inventory outflows rekindle supply concerns, hedge funds and other short-term money pile in
- France budget deadlock resurfaces: parliamentary gridlock plus multi-decade-high bond yields in many regions test investor patience over high debt
- Geopolitics: US media report CIA Director Ratcliffe secretly visited Russia; before the trip the US told Ukraine a senior delegation would head to Moscow and asked it to halt strikes
- HK stocks midday: Hang Seng +0.68%, Hang Seng Tech +1.58%, tech names rebound, Xiaomi up over 4%
- Japan: economy minister says CPI expected to rise gradually on Middle East situation; 2-yr JGB yield up to 1.695%
π§ Situation Assessment
Hormuz transit volume plunged to 5 vessels, far below the 10-day average, and the gap between reopening expectations and Iran’s tough conditions is the biggest variable for oil prices.
The real risk point in oil is shifting from “total Hormuz flows” to a “structural diesel shortage”; if the temporary passage arrangement unravels, diesel crack spreads could move first.
Copper keeps making six-month highs even after the squeeze alert was lifted; inventory outflows and distorted trade flows dominate short-term pricing, raising chase risk.
France’s budget deadlock plus high global bond yields makes European sovereign spread pressure a hidden risk for Western markets this week.
Gold keeps easing toward 4640 as the safe-haven premium fades, but a soft dollar provides a floor; direction awaits tonight’s core PCE.
HK tech rebound lifts Asia-Pacific sentiment, but sustainability depends on US earnings and positioning rebalancing ahead of Jackson Hole.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- 20:30 US July core PCE price index (tonight’s focus)
- Thursday Bank of Korea rate decision (hiking expectations rising)
- Thursday BoJ Deputy Governor Hiromi Yamaoka speech and press conference
- From Thursday Jackson Hole global central bank symposium