Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-26 12:00
BOJ September hike expectations have fully reversed: a Reuters poll shows 57% of economists expect a 25bp hike to 1.25% in September, with terminal rate expectations rising sharply; Bank of Korea August hike expectations are heating up, with both MUFG and Citi expecting a 25bp hike; copper prices extend gains toward record highs, up ~16% YTD on LME with near-term supply still tight.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold: USD 4,643.71/oz (-0.32%), range 4630-4674, extending the pullback in Asian trading
- WTI Crude: USD 79.85/bbl (-1.04%), weakening further after breaking below USD 80
π₯ Top News This Hour
- BOJ: market expectations for a September hike have fully reversed; Reuters poll shows 57% of economists expect a 25bp hike to 1.25% at the 9/17-18 meeting (vs only 5% last month); terminal rate expectations moving higher, with 36% seeing 2% or above
- Bank of Korea: MUFG leans toward a hike this month, Citi expects an August hike to 3.00% followed by hikes in November and next February β expectations brought forward
- Copper extends gains toward record highs: LME copper up ~16% YTD, near-term supply remains tight as traders ship large volumes to the US
- Asian tech strength: China’s STAR 50 index +2.18% at midday, ChiNext +1.37%; Nikkei 225 reversed early losses to rise 0.7%
- Memory chips: Korea’s August DRAM export prices surged 401% YoY; the US is reportedly pressuring Korean firms to make large-scale US memory fab investments
- Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) downgraded again: Jefferies cuts target 224β171, JPMorgan 245β188 (after Barclays’ big cut to 150 last hour)
π§ Situation Assessment
BOJ’s September hike has shifted from “surprise” to “base case,” with the Reuters poll and rising terminal rate expectations reinforcing each other β yen and carry trades are the biggest variable this week.
Joint FX intervention is seen as largely ineffective and fiscal deficit concerns persist, so yen depreciation pressure remains; if the September hike lands, carry-trade unwinding could amplify global volatility.
Bank of Korea August hike expectations are firming; a hawkish Thursday decision, together with BOJ tightening, could form an Asia-Pacific liquidity resonance.
Copper is near record highs, up 16% YTD on the LME; tight supply plus distorted trade flows are the theme β watch for a second round of squeeze risk.
DRAM export prices up 401% YoY extend the AI hardware repricing narrative, and Asia-Pacific semiconductor strength is a spillover of US sentiment.
Gold is retreating toward 4,644; risk-premium fading but a soft USD provides support β direction awaits tonight’s US core PCE.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- 20:30 US July core PCE price index (tonight’s focus)
- Thursday Bank of Korea rate decision (hike expectations rising)
- Thursday BOJ Deputy Governor Himino speech and press conference
- From Thursday Jackson Hole symposium (focus on new Fed Chair Warsh’s debut speech)