Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-26 10:00
Australia's July CPI rose 3.5% YoY, beating estimates and lifting rate-hike risk; US-Iran ceasefire expectations kept pressuring energy markets, with SC crude down over 6%; Iraq's Basra terminal loaded ~13 million barrels across 7 tankers, signaling recovering supply. US core PCE due this evening is the key focus.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold: $4,657.33/oz (-0.03%), dipping to an intraday low near $4,630 during the Asian session
- WTI Crude: $80.06/bbl (-0.78%), pressured by ceasefire hopes and supply-recovery signals
π₯ Key News This Hour
- Australia’s July CPI rose 3.5% YoY vs 3.3% expected; core inflation also beat, lifting rate-hike risk
- US-Iran ceasefire expectations kept building: energy/chemical sectors tumbled, LSFO/fuel oil down over 8%, SC crude down over 6%; Iran said Hormuz will not reopen immediately and will finalize a new permanent route with Oman within 60 days
- Iraq’s Basra terminal loading “snapped back”: 7 tankers loading ~13 million barrels simultaneously, a supply-recovery signal; only 2 cargo ships transited Hormuz on Monday, far below the 10-day average of 14 β sustainability remains the key question
- Citadel strategists turned bullish on long-dated Treasuries, citing crowded shorts and easing inflation pressure
- Bank of Korea announces its rate decision Thursday; 16 of 31 analysts polled expect a hike, a clear split
- Dutch natural gas futures fell over 5% to β¬63.18/MWh
π§ Situation Assessment
Ceasefire expectations plus recovering Iraqi exports are easing supply-side pressure, with energy names leading the decline.
Hormuz transit volumes remain very low, so the durability of the supply recovery is uncertain and oil stays highly sensitive to headlines.
Gold is consolidating in a $4,630β$4,674 range, easing for a second straight day at highs, awaiting tonight’s US core PCE.
Citadel’s shift to long Treasuries is a marginal Wall Street pivot, driven by crowded shorts β watch how it resonates with expectations the Fed stays on hold in September.
Australia’s hotter CPI strengthens the hiking narrative; if the Bank of Korea also hikes Thursday, tightening expectations could rattle risk assets across Asia.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- 16:00 Switzerland August ZEW Investor Confidence
- 18:00 UK August CBI Retail Sales
- 20:30 US July Core PCE (evening focus)
- Thursday Bank of Korea Rate Decision