Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-08-26
Reports say the US and Iran have reached consensus on ceasefire terms, WTI briefly broke below $80 overnight before rebounding; Canada announced $20B in retaliatory tariffs on US goods; Fed discount rate minutes show 4 regional banks favored a hike. Focus today is on US July core PCE.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold: $4,661.18/oz (+0.06%), roughly flat after an overnight push higher
- WTI Crude: $80.55/bbl (-0.17%); briefly broke below $80 overnight, down over 5% intraday before recovering
- Spot Silver: held above $69/oz (+0.49%)
π₯ Overnight Key News
- Russian media citing sources: US and Iran have reached consensus on ceasefire terms, including freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz; USS Lincoln has left the CENTCOM area of responsibility
- Iran and Oman plan to establish a temporary Hormuz shipping lane; US Secretary of State Rubio told allies the US does not currently expect new military strikes on Iran
- Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on ~$20B of US goods; Trump responded forcefully
- Fed discount rate meeting minutes: 4 regional banks favored a hike ahead of the July meeting; CME shows 60.4% probability of rates unchanged in September
- Fed’s Barkin warned the rising US debt will eventually face a “reckoning”
- Reuters poll: 57% of economists expect the BOJ to hike to 1.25% in September (previously only 5%)
- API crude inventories +4.2M bbl (expected +1.86M), larger-than-expected build
- Trump submitted the Saudi civilian nuclear deal to Congress, insisting on Saudi-Israel normalization
π§ Outlook
Overnight the dominant theme was Middle East ceasefire expectations, triggering a “sell-the-news” drop in oil, while gold faded from highs to flat.
US-Iran talks remain volatile and oil remains highly sensitive to headlines, so chasing one-sided moves short-term is unwise.
Fed hawks haven’t gone quiet (discount minutes + Barkin’s debt warning), but the market still prices a hold in September; focus shifts to tonight’s PCE.
BOJ September hike odds have jumped sharply, so yen and USD/JPY carry dynamics are worth watching.
π Today’s Key Data Calendar
- 09:30 Australia July Unadjusted CPI YoY
- 16:00 Switzerland August ZEW Investor Confidence
- 18:00 UK August CBI Retail Sales
- 20:30 US July Core PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)