π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-25 23:00 CST
CIA Director Ratcliffe makes a secret visit to Moscow for talks, with the US asking Ukraine to pause long-range strikes; OpenAI says its in-house Jalapeno chip beat Nvidia's GB300 in tests; Trump says Hormuz mines are cleared and vows "zero tolerance" for new mining, while the White House says no US-Iran talks are scheduled.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4,635.69, -0.34%. Intraday range 4,605.41-4,696.74, consolidating near highs.
- WTI Crude (USOIL): 82.06, -2.95%. Extending yesterday’s rout, intraday low 81.42, pressured by easing geopolitical fears.
π₯ Top Stories This Hour
- CIA chief secretly visits Moscow: US media reports CIA Director John Ratcliffe arrived in Moscow on a C-17 transport for talks with Russia; the US asked Ukraine to pause long-range missile strikes on Russia from Monday to Wednesday, while the senior US official is visiting.
- OpenAI chip breakthrough: Says its in-house Jalapeno chip beat Nvidia’s GB300 in tests (superior on both speed and power efficiency), and plans to deploy it in compute infrastructure by end-2026.
- Trump’s Hormuz warning: Says all mines in international waters have been cleared/detonated and warns Iran that any vessel laying new mines will be destroyed immediately and systematically; the Space Force is monitoring the strait and nuclear sites. The White House says no US-Iran talks are scheduled, the naval blockade is strictly effective and the strait remains open.
- Soft US data: July new home sales fell to a 6-month low as high mortgage rates curb demand; August Conference Board consumer confidence dropped to a year-low of 89.4.
- Collins turns hawkish: Fed’s Collins says “hiking expeditiously” would be appropriate absent sustained evidence of disinflation, and inflation remains too high; but she still sees disinflation as the most likely outcome given limited additional tariffs and Hormuz reopening progress.
- Volatility alarm: VIX curve is steepening as traders position ahead of the November US midterms; Nvidia earnings and Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech are the week’s focus.
- China-India talks: The 25th round of Special Representatives’ meeting on the boundary question was held in Beijing.
π§ Assessment
Crude extends its rout toward $81 as Hormuz mine clearance and “strait open” signals reinforce de-escalation expectations, keeping oil sentiment bearish near-term.
The CIA chief’s surprise Moscow visit and the reported pause in strikes hint at Russia-Ukraine de-escalation, but US-Iran tensions remain; Trump’s zero-tolerance threats keep geopolitical uncertainty alive.
A hawkish Fed voice emerges as Collins hints rates may need to rise “expeditiously,” sitting alongside the disinflation base case; markets await Jackson Hole for direction.
OpenAI’s in-house chip breakthrough adds uncertainty to the AI hardware narrative ahead of Nvidia earnings, with volatility trading heating up β beware sharp tech swings around the report.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- Week’s focus: Nvidia earnings + Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech (volatility already being priced)
- Early tomorrow: US API crude inventories (scheduled)
- Watch further US housing and labor data to validate consumer resilience