π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-25 12:00 CST
Only one bulk commodity vessel transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, the lowest since May 7, as Pakistan-Iran talks focus on preventing escalation and reopening the strait; Russia's Afipsky refinery caught fire after a drone strike; Druckenmiller criticizes Bessent's US Treasury bond buyback plan as "a wrong decision," while State Street says it "buys time but cannot buy credibility"; domestic Chinese gold jewelry prices moved back above 1,400 yuan per gram.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold XAUUSD: 4,633.65 (-0.39%), intraday range 4,618.19-4,696.74, faded after approaching 4,700 in Asia
- WTI Crude USOIL: 84.95 (+0.47%), intraday range 84.23-85.34
- Chinese brand gold jewelry back above 1,400 yuan/gram: Chow Tai Fook, TSL, and Chow Tai Seng quoting 1,410 yuan/gram, up nearly 20 yuan/gram from yesterday
- Korea’s KOSPI narrowed losses to 1%; A-share indices traded weak, ChiNext down 1.43% at midday, semis and telecom equipment underperforming
π₯ Top News This Hour
Strait of Hormuz transit hits new low; Pakistan-Iran hold talks β Preliminary shipping data show only one bulk commodity vessel transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, the lowest since May 7. Pakistan’s army chief held consultations with Iran focused on preventing further escalation and reopening the strait; the interior minister called the talks “highly productive” and ending on a “very positive” note.
Russia’s Afipsky refinery catches fire after drone strike β The governor of Krasnodar Krai said the fire resulted from a drone attack, as strikes on energy infrastructure continue to add supply-side noise to the oil market.
Druckenmiller slams Treasury bond buyback plan β Billionaire investor Druckenmiller, who once mentored Bessent, called the plan to spend billions buying back Treasuries “a wrong decision”; State Street’s senior strategist said it “buys time but cannot buy fiscal credibility,” keeping the long-end intervention controversy alive.
Memory chip signals: Samsung DRAM ramp may undershoot β TrendForce data show DDR5 16Gb spot prices flat day-on-day; reports suggest Samsung’s H2 DRAM output increase may be slower than expected, while a Micron researcher warns the “HBM memory wall” persists, keeping storage-chip supply/demand expectations in focus for semis.
UK authorizes local cruise missile production in Ukraine; Moscow threatens strikes β Britain’s new PM made Kyiv his first visit and authorized local cruise missile manufacturing in Ukraine; the Kremlin warned it would “systematically eliminate all missile production bases” in Ukraine, adding fresh geopolitical tension.
π§ Situation Assessment
Transit through the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest since May 7, while Pakistan-Iran talks signal de-escalation efforts, leaving the oil risk premium intact but direction unclear β crude stays firm near $85.
Renewed drone strikes on Russian refinery facilities keep supply disruptions and geopolitical risk in play.
The Treasury buyback controversy adds fuel to Fed-independence debates, and with Wednesday PCE and Friday’s Jackson Hole approaching, long-end yields and risk assets are likely to see more volatility.
Gold faded after testing 4,700 in Asia, yet Chinese retail demand stays hot and institutional medium-term bullish logic remains intact.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- 14:00 Germany Q2 GDP final y/y (exp. 0.9%)
- 16:00 Germany August IFO business climate (exp. 87.1)
- Wednesday (8/26) US PCE inflation data (key)
- Friday (8/28) Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Warsh keynote