📊 Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4603.25, +84.14 (+1.86%) vs open; intraday high 4632.18 / low 4508.82, off the highs
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 86.304, +0.378 (+0.44%) vs open; intraday high 87.116 / low 85.460, fading from highs

（As of 17:00 Beijing time）

🔥 Key News This Hour

  • Hormuz easing signal: Iraq’s president confirms some tankers carrying Iraqi oil have been cleared to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, adding that “the US wants a deal to end the war with Iran”; he also warns that Iraq would be the biggest victim after Iran if tensions escalate, given its heavy dependence on oil.
  • Ukraine strikes another Russian refinery: Kyiv confirms it attacked the Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery in Samara Oblast overnight.
  • Kyiv air-raid alert: Authorities warn of a possible missile strike.
  • Iran-Qatar diplomacy: Iranian officials urge Qatar to move detained Iranian pilots to a land-based hospital, saying they are “in very poor condition” on the water.
  • Typhoon “Rosewood”: Impacting southern South China Sea and coastal areas; multiple agencies coordinating flood and typhoon response.

🧭 Situation Assessment

The resumption of partial tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is a core signal that the Middle East conflict premium is compressing — crude fading after spiking to 87 reflects this.

Iraq is simultaneously stressing its own victimhood and signaling negotiations, hinting the region is moving toward some interim arrangement; short-term oil risk premium may compress further.

Ukraine’s continued strikes on Russian refining capacity keep supply-side disruption in play, underpinning crude prices.

Gold holding above 4600 is driven by risk aversion and geopolitical uncertainty, but fading from an intraday high of 4632 warrants caution on chasing longs short-term.

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

  • Saturday: US markets closed, no major data releases.
  • Early next week: watch how Strait of Hormuz traffic developments transmit to oil prices, and whether Middle East talks yield substantive results.