📊 Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4,535.45, +0.36%, range 4,508.82-4,543.65
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 86.13, +0.23%, range 85.71-86.56
  • Spot silver earlier touched $69/oz; A-share precious metals sector strong, SHFE silver up over 4%
  • A-share midday close: ChiNext +1.21%; two markets’ turnover 1.25T CNY (down 117.9B from prior session)
  • Domestic brand gold jewelry prices up 6-8 CNY/g vs yesterday, mostly 1,361-1,365 CNY/g

🔥 Top News This Hour

  • 【Geopolitics·Iran】US-Iran peace talks have stalled and ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is declining vs prior day; Kpler preliminary data shows 7 tankers transited Thursday, as Middle East security situation worsens
  • 【Precious Metals·Gold】A former Goldman Sachs commodities chief warns Treasury buybacks are fueling a debasement trade, with gold and silver entering a structural bull run; he added to gold and silver positions last week
  • 【Crude·US】Trump administration ends the summer gasoline blend restriction early, switching to winter blend fuel to push prices lower; average regular gasoline has risen to a record $4.10/gal
  • 【Japan Stocks·Geopolitics】Institutions: amid Middle East uncertainty pushing up oil prices and fueling inflation worries, Nikkei 225 is set for its worst week in over a month; index down at midday
  • 【Japan·Hikes】RBC: Japan’s inflation data supports a BOJ rate hike in September; the July meeting tone on inflation was also more hawkish (July core CPI +1.8% y/y, in line)
  • 【Fiscal·China】Ministry of Finance: over 2T CNY of local special bonds and ultra-long special treasury bonds remain to be issued in H2; will roll out practical incremental policy promptly
  • 【HK·Pop Mart】JPMorgan downgrades to Underweight, cutting TP to HK$120, expecting Q2 revenue down 11% y/y (following Citi/HSBC/CICC downgrades last hour)
  • 【Semis·MRVL】Oppenheimer raises Marvell Technology TP from $250 to $300
  • 【HK·Alibaba】Jefferies raises Alibaba TP from $185 to $190
  • 【Korea·Samsung】Samsung plans to announce a shareholder return plan that could reach $79B
  • 【FX·CNH】Offshore CNY 1Y HIBOR at 1.6676%, lowest since July 21

🧭 Situation Assessment

With US-Iran talks stalled on top of Washington’s “harshest economic action” against Tehran, Middle East geopolitical risk keeps building, and Hormuz traffic has fallen to single digits — support for crude and shipping rates is unlikely to fade soon.

Ending the summer gasoline blend early is a supply-side countermeasure that only eases the margin, without changing the pass-through of high oil prices into inflation.

The former Goldman chief’s view that Treasury buybacks are fueling a debasement trade and a structural gold/silver bull run is corroborated by gold extending gains and SHFE silver surging over 4%, keeping precious-metals bullish momentum alive.

With Japan’s core CPI in line and September BOJ hike expectations firming, JPY and Japanese equity flows merit attention, and the Nikkei is already showing its worst weekly pullback in a month.

Precious metals and container-shipping led A-shares at midday, with the geopolitical narrative dominating, but chasing risk deserves caution amid shrinking turnover.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 13:00 India Aug manufacturing/services PMI prelim
  • 14:00 UK Jul public sector net borrowing / retail sales m/m (exp -0.5%)
  • 15:15 - 16:30 France, Germany, Eurozone, UK Aug manufacturing/services PMI prelim
  • 20:30 Canada Jun retail sales m/m (exp 0.4%)
  • 21:45 US Aug S&P Global manufacturing/services PMI prelim (exp 53.9 / 54.0)
  • 22:00 Eurozone Aug consumer confidence prelim (exp -16.3)