📊 Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4525.56, +0.14%; closed down 0.08% at 4519.33 overnight, range 4517.14 - 4532.75
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 85.948, +0.026%; closed up 2.08% at 85.98 overnight; Brent +1.79% at 91.69
  • Spot Silver: +1.60% at 68.09, extending strength
  • US equities closed lower: Dow -1.3%, S&P 500 -0.86%, Nasdaq -1%; Moderna -23.5%, Walmart -9%, Marvell +5.8%, Micron +4%
  • Treasury yields climbed again: 10-year +6.7bp to 4.705%, 2-year +2.8bp to 4.19%
  • US dollar index +0.07% at 98.87

🔥 Key Overnight News

  • 【Geopolitics·Iran】Trump announced a new round of the “most severe” economic sanctions against Iran, threatening economic action against any country with commercial ties to Tehran; the White House said the US controls the Strait of Hormuz and Iran will never have nuclear weapons
  • 【Bonds·Treasury】Bessent said the single-buyback cap may exceed $4 billion, with a “large toolbox” ready; but the effect of expanded buybacks lasted only a day, with 10-year yields climbing again and Wall Street questioning whether the “short-sighted intervention” would push US borrowing costs higher long-term
  • 【Macro·Debt】US national debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, with the deficit near 6% of GDP; Bessent said the deficit has “very likely peaked,” with a fiscal consolidation plan possibly out this weekend or early next week
  • 【Macro·Fed】San Francisco Fed President Daly: current monetary policy is “in the right place,” and rising long-end yields are a global problem; CME shows a 63.8% probability of the Fed holding rates in September
  • 【AI·IPO】Anthropic is racing toward the largest IPO in history, with proceeds potentially matching or exceeding SpaceX; it reportedly plans to add Citigroup to the core underwriting syndicate (alongside Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan)
  • 【Semis·Broadcom】Broadcom reportedly in talks for over $60 billion in debt financing for AI chips, possibly including ~$30 billion in subordinated debt
  • 【Semis·SK Hynix】SK Hynix plans to build a memory chip fab in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan — the first major Korean chipmaker production base in Japan
  • 【Space·SpaceX】SpaceX’s second lock-up expiry: up to 319 million insider shares tradable
  • 【Macro·Central banks】Fed foreign reverse repo balances rose to their highest since October 2022, with overseas official institutions continuing to build dollar cash reserves

🧭 Situation Assessment

The new round of “most severe” sanctions on Iran and restricted Hormuz shipping are the core drivers of crude’s renewed strength, with oil now above $86.

The one-day Treasury buyback bounce shows fiscal intervention can hardly reverse the uptrend in long-end yields, with the 10-year back above 4.7% — weighing on global risk-asset valuations.

All three US indices closed lower as higher oil and yields squeezed valuations, keeping short-term market sentiment cautious.

Gold is consolidating in a narrow 4519-4533 range, with safe-haven demand and higher rates pulling in opposite directions — near-term direction still undecided.

Watch today’s Eurozone/US PMI prints and Treasury moves; if yields keep climbing, pressure on Asian and European equity opens persists.

📅 Today’s Key Data Calendar

  • 07:01 UK August GfK consumer confidence (released -14, better than -18 expected)
  • 07:30 Japan July core CPI y/y (prev 1.6%, exp 1.8%)
  • 14:00 UK July public sector net borrowing / retail sales m/m
  • 15:15 - 16:30 France, Germany, Eurozone, UK August manufacturing/services PMI flash
  • 20:30 Canada June retail sales m/m
  • 21:45 US August S&P Global manufacturing/services PMI flash
  • 22:00 Eurozone August consumer confidence flash