📊 Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4,477.66, -45.16 (-1.00%), intraday range 4,450.69 - 4,527.45
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 86.40, +2.16 (+2.56%), intraday range 83.995 - 87.367
  • Bonds: US 30-year Treasury erased gains from yesterday’s Treasury buyback announcement
  • Data: Jobless claims 206K, below expectations; Philly Fed manufacturing index 47.4, big beat

🔥 Top News This Hour

  • 【Fed · Daly】Dense remarks: no evidence yet of a need for preemptive rate hikes; the long-end yield rise is a global problem that weakens its signaling value; “very supportive” of holding rates in July, policy in good shape; labor market stable but not weak, focus remains on inflation, wary of compounding inflation shocks
  • 【Semis · Micron】Launches Micron Research Labs with $10B planned over the next decade; also announced plans to invest over $250B in the US, creating more than 90,000 jobs
  • 【US · Labor】Initial jobless claims 206K (exp. 210K, prior revised up to 212K); 4-week average 204K; continuing claims 1.799M (exp. 1.79M)
  • 【US · Manufacturing】August Philly Fed manufacturing index 47.4 (exp. 25, prior 41.4), a big beat; employment sub-index jumped to 27.9 (prior 10); prices paid fell to 40.9
  • 【Bonds】US 30-year Treasury erased the gains from yesterday’s Treasury buyback announcement
  • 【US · Fiscal】Treasury proposes common-sense, low-cost investment rules for the “Trump account”
  • 【Agri · Black Sea】Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports both face disruptions, Black Sea grain corridor at risk; the two countries supply ~30% of global wheat demand; IGC cut its 2026/27 global wheat production forecast by 4M tonnes to 817M tonnes
  • 【Climate】US CPC: El Nino intensifying, >90% probability of a super event this fall and winter

🧭 Situation Assessment

Daly’s remarks were the core of this hour, explicitly ruling out a “preemptive hike” path and cooling down the long-end yield rise, which is mildly friendly to risk assets short-term.

Claims and the Philly Fed reading cut both ways: employment remains solid and manufacturing expansion beat expectations, pointing to lingering economic resilience, yet sticky-inflation concerns won’t easily fade.

Micron’s $250B+ US investment plan lends sentiment support to the memory/semiconductor complex, extending the AI capex narrative.

Black Sea wheat supply risks combined with an intensifying El Nino could support agriculture prices; watch for inflation spillover and grain price pass-through.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 21:30 Beijing: US market open; watch retail and semiconductor/memory chain reactions
  • 22:00 Beijing: US July existing home sales
  • Watch further Fed official comments for more guidance on rate expectations