📊 Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4465.98, -56.84 (-1.26%), range 4465.37 - 4527.45
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 86.93, +2.68 (+3.19%), touched $87/bbl intraday; Brent 92.44 (+2.7%)
  • Spot Silver: -1% intraday at $66.28/oz; NY silver futures -1% at $66.45
  • US Stock Futures: Dow/Nasdaq futures slightly lower after Walmart earnings
  • Rates: German 5Y yield hit 3% for the first time since 2008 (+1bp)
  • Energy: European natural gas reached EUR 65/MWh for the first time since March

🔥 Top News This Hour

  • 【Retail · Walmart】Q2 US comp sales ex-fuel +2.6% (vs +3.67% expected), Sam’s Club +4.4% slightly above; full-year outlook disappointed, shares down over 6% pre-market, weighing on index futures
  • 【China Tech · Alibaba】FY27Q1: AI-related product annualized revenue surpassed RMB 49.5B; AI app & model service ARR over RMB 16B; CEO Wu Yongming says Alibaba Cloud upgrading to agentic cloud, AI & cloud revenue growth to accelerate
  • 【Geopolitics · Middle East】Iran parliament NSC chairman warns any US misjudgment or wrong action could bring serious consequences; US carrier USS George Washington arrived in CENTCOM area of responsibility
  • 【Geopolitics · Israel】Ben-Gurion airport expected to close ~6 hours over union action, then IAA says flights to gradually resume from 3pm on revised schedule
  • 【Crude · Supply】JODI: Saudi June crude output +562K bpd MoM to 7.122M bpd, exports +559K bpd to 3.993M bpd; EU says storage at 62%, no immediate gas supply concerns
  • 【Tech · Meta】Per sources, Meta spends hundreds of millions annually via Microsoft Azure for AI models, using trillions of tokens weekly, now one of Microsoft’s largest AI customers
  • 【Macro】Hermes IM: inflation remains Fed’s primary concern, officials highly consistent; labor market still watched
  • 【Ratings】Rosenblatt initiates: Alphabet Buy (PT 410), Amazon Buy (335), eBay Buy (120); Truist raises Snowflake PT to 375, PayPal to 62

🧭 Assessment

Gold broke below 4500 to 4466, down 1.26% on the day, diverging from oil as safe-haven demand cooled while US yield curve flattened.

Oil is highly correlated with geopolitics — Iran’s warning plus US carrier deployment pushed WTI toward $87, but Saudi’s sharp MoM output/export increase caps upside; watch the $86-88 range near term.

Walmart’s below-consensus comp sales and full-year outlook suggest US consumer resilience falls short of expectations; retail sector may face pressure tonight, watch for broader consumer-stock repricing.

Inflation remains the Fed’s primary concern with consistent official messaging, leaving limited room for near-term rate-cut expectations.

Alibaba’s strong AI revenue growth and cloud upgrade are a positive for the China tech earnings season; watch spillover to HK-listed tech and ADRs.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 20:30 CST: US weekly initial jobless claims
  • 21:30 CST: US market open — watch Walmart’s impact on retail sector and broader indices
  • 22:00 CST: US July existing home sales