đź“Š Market Snapshot

  • Gold XAUUSD: $4,355.20 â–˛0.49% | Range $4,324.67–$4,362.09
  • WTI USOIL: $84.55 â–˛0.28% | Range $84.23–$84.99
  • China A-shares (noon): Shanghai -1.96% | Shenzhen -3.97% | ChiNext -4.98% | STAR50 -6.07% | Half-day turnover ÂĄ1.62T | Over 4,900 stocks down | Banks and insurers up, CITIC Bank +4%
  • FX/Rates: Won breaks 1,400/dollar (first since last October), USD/KRW -1% to 1,398.9 | Philippine peso hits record low 61.952 | INR ~95.70, RBI selling dollars to support | Japan 10Y yield 2.895% (-4bp)
  • Commodities: Copper posts biggest drop in over 3 weeks (LME stock surge) | Shanghai silver -4%+

🔥 Key News This Hour

  1. US-Canada tariff progress: Carney confirms delay to Aug 21 — PM Carney says talks have made “significant progress but important work remains,” and the US has agreed to delay Section 338 tariffs of 50% on Canadian goods until August 21. Mexico’s economy minister also met the US trade representative to discuss the next USMCA round and Section 301 probes.
  2. Copper posts biggest drop in over 3 weeks — Dealers delivered large volumes to LME warehouses; on-warrant copper stock rose more than 20,000 tonnes in a day, the biggest gain since April, easing a historic supply squeeze.
  3. Korea’s KDI raises growth forecast, won firms — KDI lifts its 2026 GDP growth view from 2.5% to 3.2%, above the government’s 3%, citing strong global chip demand; 2027 raised to 2.2%. USD/KRW -1%, won breaks 1,400 for the first time since October.
  4. UAE suspends trade with Iran — The UAE takes the first hard measure against Iranian trade; market watches whether the economic impact exceeds US sanctions. Other Gulf states remain cautious and may not follow immediately.
  5. Middle East: US reiterates conditions for Israeli withdrawal — US ambassador to Israel says Israeli forces need not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas is “completely disarmed.”
  6. EM FX under pressure — India’s central bank sells dollars to support the rupee near 95.70; the Philippine peso fell as much as 0.3% to 61.952, a record low.

🧭 Situation Assessment

The US-Canada tariff drama now has a clear deadline of August 21, but Carney admits “important work remains” and no final document is done—treat this buffer as a reprieve, not a resolution.

The copper plunge is a textbook inventory reaction—the historic squeeze structure is unwinding as LME stock surged 20,000+ tonnes in a day, repricing crowded long positions in commodities.

A stronger won and higher Korea growth forecast point to a still-strong Asian chip cycle, contrasting sharply with A-share semiconductor and memory selloffs—the market split is about valuation levels, not industry fundamentals.

EM FX divergence is widening: rupee and peso under pressure with frequent central-bank intervention; Asian currency strength depends on current accounts and central-bank firepower, not a unified trend.

Tonight’s Fed minutes are the key event—after Warsh’s dovish tone last week, the wording will test whether policy communication is shifting, so watch for renewed rate-cut speculation.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 02:00 Thursday (Beijing time) Fed July meeting minutes (market watching for a shift in policy communication after Warsh’s remarks)
  • 22:30 US EIA crude oil inventories (prior big build; key for oil)
  • August 21 US-Canada Section 338 tariff delay deadline