π° **Hourly Briefing** | 2026-08-18 21:00 CST
US 10Y yield hits highest since early 2025 as global sovereign bond selloff persists; US July housing starts miss badly but building permits beat; Baidu Q2 revenue fell with pre-market -7.5%; Morgan Stanley backs gold as core defensive asset.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold XAUUSD: 4391.99, -0.56% β (peaked at 4436 intraday before pulling back; gold re-accumulating as long-dated bonds get sold off)
- WTI Crude USOIL: 84.37, +0.35% (mild uptick, range 83.71-84.77)
π₯ Key News This Hour
- US 10Y yield hits highest since 2025: Global sovereign bond selloff continues, pushing the US 10-year Treasury yield to its highest since early 2025; bond markets from Europe to Japan weakening in tandem, with investors wary of inflation and excess corporate bond supply.
- US July housing data mixed: Housing starts annualized at 1.239M vs 1.35M expected, -12.4% MoM, with single-family starts at the lowest since 2022; but building permits at 1.443M beat the 1.37M estimate, +5% MoM.
- US July import/export prices both fell: Import prices -0.4% MoM (vs +0.1% expected), export prices -1.3% MoM (vs +0.2% expected); petroleum import prices down 7.5%, easing inflation pressure at the margin.
- Baidu Q2 revenue RMB 31.3B, down YoY, pre-market -7.5%: Versus RMB 32.7B a year earlier; results missed, weighing on China ADR/tech sentiment.
- Morgan Stanley: 60/40 portfolio broken, backs gold as core defensive asset: Chief US equity strategist says 2022’s bond-equity rout exposed the flaw, recommending adding gold and commodities weight to portfolios.
- Midterm election danger window: Institutions flag that a market “with almost no bears” is heading into the historically volatile window from mid-August to mid-October of midterm years.
- Geopolitics: US Syria envoy criticized Israeli airstrikes on Syria as “unnecessary escalation that does not help regional stability.”
π§ Assessment
The Treasury selloff driving yields to 2025 highs is the core market contradiction this hour; valuation-sensitive assets should watch the pressure from the discount-rate side.
US housing data is mixed: the sharp housing-starts miss points to a softening housing sector, but the permits beat leaves room for a rebound β avoid a one-sided read.
Import/export prices and petroleum import prices falling together marginally support the disinflation narrative, easing recent bond-market worries about reflation.
Institutions (Morgan Stanley) publicly rotating toward gold and commodities signal rising defensive sentiment, forming a rare “risk-off + reflation” mix alongside record bond yields.
Baidu’s pre-market drop plus the midterm-window signal pressures risk appetite in tech and China ADRs near-term.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- US July housing starts/permits, import/export prices, and ADP weekly employment are all out for this session.
- Watch on the regular calendar (subject to official release): Wed (8/19) 22:30 CST EIA crude inventories; Thu (8/20) 20:30 CST weekly jobless claims; Fri (8/21) US Aug Markit manufacturing/services PMI flash.