📊 Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4395.42 (-0.48% ↓), range 4386-4436
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 84.09 (+0.0%, flat), range 83.71-84.77
  • US 10Y Treasury Yield: rose to 4.75%, highest since January 2025
  • Emerging Markets: four-day winning streak ended, MSCI EM index down 0.7%

🔥 Key News This Hour

  • 📈 US Bond Selloff Intensifies: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.75%, the highest since January 2025; Germany’s 30-year bund auction yield also hit its highest since 2011, pressuring global bond markets.
  • 🌍 EM Stocks End Four-Day Rally: Bond selloff plus higher oil prices weighed on risk sentiment; the MSCI EM index fell 0.7% led by Samsung Electronics and TSMC, while the dollar firmed slightly.
  • ⚠️ Geopolitical Risk Returns: Trump posted an image calling the Strait of Hormuz a “new US territory”; Iran’s deputy foreign minister responded sharply, vowing to “correct the delusional one’s wrong ideas”.
  • 🏦 BofA Fund Manager Survey: 32% of investors see the AI bubble as the biggest tail risk; 31% expect Fed Chair Warsh to take a neutral stance at Jackson Hole, with markets pricing this in early.
  • 🏢 Goldman Sachs Acquires LCN Capital: GS announced a deal to acquire LCN Capital Partners, with initial consideration of ~$260M plus ~$150M in deferred and contingent consideration, ~80% paid in equity.
  • 🇬🇧 UK Labour Market Softening: ICAEW said the employment data reduces the likelihood of a BoE rate hike in September.
  • 📱 Xiaomi’s New XuanJie Chip: Lu Weibing revealed a new-gen XuanJie chip is coming; last year’s XuanJie O1 shipped over 1M units cumulatively.
  • 💰 Ant Sells Paytm Stake: Ant Group plans to sell 3% of India’s Paytm for $309M.
  • 🇨🇳 A-Share H1 Earnings Wave: Huaneng Power Intl profit down 28.89%; Zhuzhou Smelter profit up 232.75% YoY; Aoke Optical up 91.92%.

🧭 Market Assessment

The US Treasury is the global pricing anchor, and the 10-year yield surging to 4.75% (an 18-month high) makes valuation pressure the dominant theme in markets.

Bond selloff plus firm oil prices are weighing on emerging markets and risk assets, with funds clearly rotating toward defensives.

Trump’s “Strait of Hormuz = new US territory” remark is pushing geopolitical premium back into oil prices, and further escalation warrants caution.

With Jackson Hole approaching, Warsh’s tone is this week’s biggest market variable, and markets are already pricing in a neutral stance.

Gold pulled back below the 4400 level as rising Treasury yields cap the metal, keeping it in a near-term range-bound pattern.

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

  • 🎤 Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium (late this month), Fed Chair Warsh speech — biggest event this week
  • 🇺🇸 US market opens tonight (21:30 CST); watch for transmission of the bond selloff into tech valuations
  • 🇮🇳 8/20 India-Singapore ministerial roundtable