π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-18 13:00 CST
Bond selloff pushes long-term borrowing costs to multi-decade highs, with 30Y Treasury yields at the highest since 2007; another ship reported hit in the Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical risk escalating; Nvidia says OpenAI has committed to large-scale deployment of Nvidia AI infrastructure by 2030; El Nino likely to become the strongest on record.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold XAUUSD: 4393.35 (-0.53% β), Open 4417.71, High 4436.18, Low 4389.12
- WTI Crude USOIL: 84.249 (+0.21%), Open 84.040, High 84.467, Low 83.710
π₯ Top News This Hour
- Bond selloff: long-term borrowing costs hit multi-decade highs, with 30Y Treasury yields at the highest since 2007 and government bond yields surging globally, as concerns over inflation and the highly-leveraged AI boom concentrate in the bond market.
- Another ship hit in the Strait of Hormuz: a vessel leaving the strait was struck by an unidentified projectile, with engine-room damage and one crew member injured or possibly dead (a new ship hit versus the prior hour, geopolitical risk escalating).
- Iran FM Araqchi claims “four defeats” for the US: no victory on the battlefield, no regime change, no division, no armed success β Iran has prevailed in both diplomacy and war.
- China National Climate Center: El Nino developing rapidly, likely to become the strongest event on record, peaking around November-December.
- Libya seeks up to $40 billion in investment to develop oil and gas resources, aiming to return to the ranks of major crude producers.
- Nvidia: OpenAI has committed to large-scale deployment of Nvidia AI infrastructure by 2030.
- HK midday close: HSI down 0.65% at 25,287, HSTECH down ~2% at 4,687, Zhipu down over 16%; large-model and PCB names fell.
π§ Market Outlook
The bond selloff is the most worrisome signal right now β 30Y Treasury yields back at 2007 levels imply a higher global risk-free rate anchor, a systemic headwind for high-valuation growth stocks.
Gold is not rising in the bond-market storm; risk-off flows favor Treasuries over precious metals, so gold may stay range-bound near highs in the near term.
With another strike in the Strait of Hormuz plus the Libya output narrative, oil supply uncertainty is rising and crude should stay firm short-term.
The AI narrative is swinging the market: OpenAI commits to massive Nvidia deployment on one side, while surging bond yields raise financing costs for AI projects on the other β two forces in a tug of war.
β° Upcoming Key Events
- Aug 20 10:00 CST β Ministry of Transport press conference on “AI + Transport” typical application scenarios
- Aug 20 15:00 CST β MOFCOM August regular press conference
- Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium (late Aug, watch Powell’s speech)
- Nvidia earnings approaching (AI sector bellwether)