πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Gold (XAUUSD): $4,403.04/oz β–Ό 0.63% | Range 4367-4417
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): $81.09/bbl β–Ό 0.53% | Range 80.87-82.14
  • European Futures: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.32%, DAX +0.27%, CAC40 +0.24%, FTSE100 +0.2%
  • Asia-Pacific Close: Nikkei 225 +0.74% at 69,220, ASX200 -0.55% at 9,065
  • A-Shares Late Session: ChiNext up 3%+, Shenzhen up 2.3%, Shanghai up 1.3%, 4,200+ stocks advancing, chips/CPO/advanced packaging leading, turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan for 10th straight day

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

1. RMB Breaks 6.74 β€” 3.5-Year High

Both onshore and offshore RMB broke through the 6.74 level against the USD, the highest since February 2023. Cooling Fed rate hike expectations and broad EM currency strength pushed the EM currency index to a record high of 1906.98.

2. China July Key Economic Data Imminent

Industrial value-added, retail sales, and 70-city housing price reports to be released in ~10 minutes (15:00), with markets watching for domestic demand recovery signals.

3. Japan GDP Misses β€” Government May Delay Deflation Declaration

Japan’s Q2 GDP growth came in below expectations. Daiwa Securities believes the government is unlikely to officially declare an end to deflation within the current fiscal year, constraining BOJ rate hike pace.

4. Tech Giants’ AI “Hidden Bill” Reaches $3 Trillion

WSJ analysis reveals that AI capital expenditure in public financial statements is only the tip of the iceberg for 9 major tech giants, with off-balance-sheet commitments totaling ~$3 trillion, far exceeding market expectations.

5. Asian Refiners Demand Red Sea Bypass

At least two Asian refiners have asked Saudi Aramco to change crude delivery from the Red Sea port of Yanbu to Egyptian Mediterranean ports, as Red Sea shipping risks continue to elevate logistics costs.

6. Unitree Unveils “Superman” Robot

Humanoid robot achieves 2-meter standing vertical jump and 12.66 m/s top speed, surpassing all human records for standing jump and running speed. Chinese robotics hardware capabilities continue to break through.

🧭 Assessment

Gold holds firm above $4,400, driven by cooling Fed rate hike expectations. Broad EM currency strength confirms the dollar weakness narrative.

Crude pulls back to ~$81, with Hormuz Strait risks partially digested by markets. However, downstream product shortage transmission effects are not fully priced in β€” medium-term upside risk remains.

A-share chip sector sustains strength with major capital inflows into Changxin Tech, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Zhongji Innolight. Semiconductor import substitution thesis gains capital consensus.

RMB strength and dollar weakness form a positive feedback loop, but this week’s China July data will test whether fundamentals support the move.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 15:00 CST β€” China July industrial value-added, retail sales, 70-city housing prices (imminent)
  • This Week β€” Fed July FOMC minutes (Thursday AM), Jackson Hole central bank symposium warmup