π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-17 13:00 CST
Goldman Sachs says market is too hawkish on Fed, September hike "very unlikely"; Iran warns against joking about the Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical tensions rising; Former Japanese finance official calls for rate hikes at every BOJ meeting, 30Y yield hits 4.065%; Jefferies raises price targets on three major energy stocks.
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAUUSD) | 4391.04 | -0.35% |
| WTI Crude (USOIL) | 81.31 | -0.26% |
Gold pulled back from intraday high of 4416 to around 4391, still holding above 4390. Crude oil oscillating narrowly around the 81 level.
π₯ Key News This Hour
1. Goldman Sachs: Market Too Hawkish on Fed, September Hike “Very Unlikely”
Goldman Chief Economist Jan Hatzius stated that given cooling US inflation, weak retail sales, and disappointing employment data, the market’s expectations for Fed rate hikes are overly aggressive. Goldman considers a September hike “very unlikely” and believes market rate pricing needs further downward correction.
2. Iran Warns: Don’t Joke About the Strait of Hormuz
In response to Trump’s claim that the Strait of Hormuz would be declared US territory after defeating Iran, Iranian military commander Hatami warned that such remarks, even as a joke, are a grave mistake. Geopolitical tensions continue to escalate.
3. Former Japanese Finance Official: BOJ Should Hike at Every Meeting
Takehiko Nakao, former Japanese Vice Finance Minister and ADB President, stated the BOJ should raise rates at every policy meeting, targeting above 2%, to narrow the US-Japan interest rate gap and ease yen depreciation. Japan’s 30-year bond yield rose 5.5bp to 4.065%.
4. Jefferies Raises Targets on Three Major Energy Stocks
Jefferies raised Marathon Oil (MRO) target from $335 to $413, Chevron (CVX) from $216 to $233, and ExxonMobil (XOM) from $184 to $200. TD Cowen also raised Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) target from $481 to $529.
5. Hong Kong Stocks Strong at Midday, Hang Seng Tech +2%
Hang Seng Index rose 1.61% to 25,521; Hang Seng Tech gained 2.01% to 4,802. Semiconductor and port/shipping sectors led gains. Geely Auto’s H1 profit fell 2% YoY to 9.091 billion yuan.
6. EUR/USD Breaks 1.1585, Two-Month High
EUR/USD broke above 1.1585, the highest since June 17. AUD/USD touched 0.71, up 0.25% intraday. The dollar continued to weaken.
π§ Situation Assessment
Goldman’s public call that “the market is too hawkish on Fed” creates a counter-narrative to the earlier global rate-hike fears.
This suggests major Wall Street banks are starting to believe market pricing has diverged from fundamentals β with cooling inflation and weakening consumption, hike odds are overestimated.
If Goldman is correct, US Treasury yields could fall, which would be favorable for equity valuations, particularly rate-sensitive growth stocks.
But the Japanese bond market tells an opposite story: a former finance official calling for hikes at every meeting pushed 30Y yields to 4.065%.
The divergence in US-Japan rate paths β US yields potentially falling vs Japanese yields rising β would compress the US-Japan yield gap, supporting the yen but potentially triggering capital flows from US Treasuries back to Japan.
Iran’s warning about the Strait of Hormuz should not be ignored β the strait carries roughly 20% of global oil trade, and any escalation would directly impact oil prices.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- 15:00 CST β China July Retail Sales YoY (expected 1.5%), Industrial Production YoY (expected 4.8%), Fixed Asset Investment, Unemployment Rate
- 20:30 CST β Canada July CPI MoM (expected 0.40%), CPI YoY (expected 2.90%), Core CPI