π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-13 23:00 CST
Fed's Barkin delivered dense remarks citing labor market fragility and opposing excessive forward guidance; Markets no longer fully pricing a Fed rate hike this year, US bonds rally across the curve; Databricks closes $5B raise at $190B valuation; gold dips below $4,360 then stabilizes.
π Market Snapshot
- π₯ Gold XAUUSD: $4,383.37 (-0.57%), intraday low $4,357.95 before stabilizing
- π’οΈ WTI Crude USOIL: $80.40 (-1.57%), Brent below $85, down 2.57% intraday
- β½ US Natural Gas futures down 3.0%, EIA inventory +360B cf (est. 320B)
- π Nasdaq extends gains to 1%, SanDisk (SNDK) and SK Hynix up 4%+
π₯ Key News This Hour
1. Fed’s Barkin Delivers Dense Remarks Barkin made over a dozen statements during 22:45-22:48 CST, key points:
- Labor market not as strong as data suggests, fragilities exist
- Excessive forward guidance limits Fed flexibility, not appropriate to provide forward guidance now
- Inflation has been above target for 5+ years but is easing after two surge phases
- Concerned about sustainability of low-income consumer spending
- AI’s net impact on employment is job reallocation rather than headcount reduction
2. Markets No Longer Fully Pricing Fed Rate Hike This Year As falling oil prices reinforce inflation optimism, bond traders have stopped fully pricing a Fed rate hike this year. US Treasury market rallied with yields falling up to 9 bps across maturities, 30-year yield declining ahead of Thursday’s new bond auction.
3. Goldman’s Kaplan: Fed July Hold “Absolutely Correct” Goldman analyst Robert Kaplan said the July no-hike decision was absolutely right, urging policymakers to remain open-minded before September, arguing that rigid forward guidance hinders response to complex inflation dynamics.
4. Databricks Closes $5B Funding Round at $190B Valuation Data and AI platform Databricks completed a $5 billion funding round, reaching a $190 billion valuation, further setting records for unlisted tech company valuations.
5. Ukraine Strikes Russian Refinery, Proposes Black Sea Ceasefire Ukrainian forces attacked a large refinery in Bashkortostan, 1,300 km from the border, causing a major fire. Separately, Ukraine proposed through a third party that both sides cease attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, but Russia has not yet responded.
6. Strait of Hormuz: IRGC Continues Harassing Commercial Vessels UK Maritime Trade Organization reported that Iran’s IRGC continues to harass and monitor commercial ships, with Hormuz Strait commercial traffic remaining at restricted levels. No confirmed attacks in the latest reporting period.
7. BoE’s Pill: Growth Supports Rate Hike Argument Bank of England Chief Economist Pill stated that UK economic growth momentum provides justification for rate hikes, contrasting with the Fed’s direction.
π§ Situation Assessment
Barkin’s remarks lean dovish β emphasizing labor market fragility and opposing excessive forward guidance, combined with falling Treasury yields, markets have stopped fully pricing a rate hike this year.
Falling oil prices remain the core driver of improving inflation expectations β WTI near $80, Brent below $85, and the impact of Ukraine’s strike on a Russian refinery is offset by global demand concerns.
Databricks’ $190B valuation with a $5B raise shows capital is still concentrating in AI infrastructure, with long-term bets on the AI supply chain undeterred by short-term macro uncertainty.
Hormuz Strait transit risk warrants continued monitoring β IRGC harassment persists, and any escalation could reverse the oil price downtrend.
Gold briefly broke below $4,360 before recovering to around $4,383, with increased volatility but no range break, reflecting the tug-of-war between rate expectations and geopolitical risk.
β° Upcoming Key Events
- Thursday (8/14): US 30-year Treasury bond auction
- Thursday (8/14): Canadian trade minister meets USTR Greer
- Thursday (8/15): US weekly initial jobless claims (week ending Aug 9)
- Ongoing: Fed officials’ speaking pace and September meeting expectation management