π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-13 22:00 CST
Fed's Hammack says not confident inflation will continue to improve, needs to bring it to 2% faster; Rotterdam refinery explosion kills one; Alibaba's Qwen3.8-2.4T goes live on supercomputing network; US stocks open slightly higher, gold down 0.77%, WTI crude falls 2.26%.
π Market Overview
- π₯ Gold XAUUSD: 4374.51 (-0.77%, -33.91) pulling back from daily highs
- π’οΈ WTI Crude USOIL: 79.83 (-2.26%, -1.85) losses expanding
- π US Open: Dow +0.26%, S&P 500 +0.29%, Nasdaq +0.12%
- π» Computer hardware strength: HP +6.4%, Dell +3.4% (first break above $500, high of $514)
- π Stock divergence: Cisco -7.9% (earnings beat but not enough for Wall Street), Cerebras -12.4% (Q2 revenue miss), Virgin Galactic -10.4%
π₯ Key News This Hour
1. Fed’s Hammack Strikes Hawkish Tone Fed’s Hammack stated he is “not confident inflation will continue to improve,” calling for faster reduction to 2%. He also flagged concerns about private credit and potential AI bubble. While acknowledging recent inflation reports were encouraging, overall tone was cautiously hawkish.
2. Rotterdam Refinery Explosion Oil trader Gunvor confirmed an explosion at its Rotterdam facility, resulting in one fatality. ExxonMobil subsequently stated that power outage issues at its Rotterdam refinery have been resolved and operations are back to normal. WTI crude losses expanded to 2.26%.
3. Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-2.4T Goes Live on Supercomputing Network Alibaba’s latest open-source massive MoE model Qwen3.8-2.4T-A95B is now available on the supercomputing internet, deployed on 10,000-GPU clusters. Enterprises and developers can access it directly via the AI community.
4. DeepSeek Harness Public Beta DeepSeek launched the public beta of its code agent framework Harness, along with an NPM plugin ecosystem. GitHub repository remains private for now.
5. CPC Issues El NiΓ±o Watch The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicated El NiΓ±o is strengthening, with probability of a strong El NiΓ±o event exceeding 90% for the 2026-27 Northern Hemisphere fall-winter season.
6. Russian Seaborne Oil Product Exports Plunge Industry data shows Russian seaborne oil product exports fell 33% in July compared to June.
7. Chile-Argentina Mining Agreement Chile’s mining minister stated the agreement with Argentina could bring $207 billion in investment and add 540,000 tons of annual copper production.
π§ Market Assessment
Fed’s Hammack’s hawkish tone sets the direction for tonight β “not confident inflation will continue to improve” means the rate cut path remains uncertain.
Gold pulled back from intraday high of 4449 to 4374, with clear profit-taking, but support near 4370.
WTI crude faces dual pressure from the Rotterdam explosion and declining Russian exports, with heightened short-term volatility, though the explosion impact has largely been resolved.
AI sector divergence intensifies: Cerebras down 12% on revenue miss, while Dell breaks $500 for the first time β market preference for AI infrastructure remains intact.
Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-2.4T and DeepSeek Harness released on the same day, China’s AI open-source ecosystem is accelerating.
β° Upcoming Key Events
- Today 22:30 β Fed’s Hammack has released hawkish signals, watch for any other Fed officials speaking
- Monitor this week’s PPI/CPI data (if available) for impact on rate cut expectations
- August 19 β Swedish metal workers union to suspend industrial action against Tesla