π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-13 21:00 CST
US July PPI missed expectations across the board; initial jobless claims rose to 209k; Fed's Hammack calls for immediate rate hike while Barkin strikes a balanced tone; Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries push diesel exports to multi-year lows; gold down to 4397, oil drops 1.5%.
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAUUSD) | 4397.61 | -0.25% β |
| WTI Crude (USOIL) | 80.41 | -1.55% β |
US Treasury yields declined: 2Y at 4.176% (-2.3bps), 10Y at 4.676% (-1.4bps). US stock futures were little changed after data release.
π₯ Key News This Hour
1. US July PPI Misses Across the Board
PPI YoY 4.7% (est. 4.9%, prev. 5.5%) β lowest since March; PPI MoM 0% (est. 0.2%). Core PPI YoY 4.2% (in line), MoM 0.2% (est. 0.3%). Producer-side inflation pressure is easing meaningfully, reinforcing the disinflationary signal from yesterday’s CPI data.
2. Initial Jobless Claims Rise to 209k
Initial claims for week ending Aug 8 came in at 209k (est. 202k), the highest since July 11. Continuing claims at 1.777M, below the expected 1.795M. Marginal softening in the labor market is emerging.
3. Fed Officials Speak β Hammack Hawkish, Barkin Ambivalent
Hammack stated bluntly that “rates must be hiked now,” arguing current policy is not restrictive enough and inflation is broad-based. Barkin struck a more balanced tone: acknowledging reasons to believe inflation is on a downward path, while also noting prices could be “entrenched” and may require rate hikes or demand weakness to achieve the 2% target. Notably, Barkin mentioned that “many” at the Fed believe current rates are sufficiently restrictive.
4. Ukrainian Strikes Hit Russian Refineries β Diesel Exports at Multi-Year Lows
Ukrainian forces continue targeting Russian energy infrastructure, extending strikes deep into the Ural region over 1,000km from Moscow. Russian diesel exports have dropped to multi-year lows.
5. Iran Pushes Back Against Trump β Hormuz Strait “Under Iran’s Control”
Iran’s new military official publicly rebuffed Trump, refusing to resume navigation until US commitments are fulfilled. The global oil supply gap continues to widen.
π§ Assessment
PPI data missed expectations across the board, confirming that producer-side inflation pressure is easing β a disinflationary signal consistent with yesterday’s CPI print.
However, the Fed’s internal hawk-dove divide is intensifying. Hammack advocates an immediate hike, while Barkin hedges between “inflation has peaked” and “inflation is entrenched.”
Notably, Treasury yields fell rather than rose after the PPI data β the market is voting with its feet, pricing in disinflation over hawkish rhetoric.
Initial jobless claims rose to their highest since mid-July β the labor market softening signal warrants attention; if the trend continues, it could open the door for rate cuts.
On the geopolitical front, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining capacity and Iran’s hardline Hormuz stance should be oil-bullish, yet crude dropped nearly 1.5% β suggesting the market is trading demand weakness over supply risk for now.
Gold pulled back slightly but remains range-bound near 4400, caught between geopolitical premium and rate-cut expectations.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- Aug 14 (Fri): US July Retail Sales MoM (significant market impact expected β consumer resilience test)
- Aug 14 (Fri): University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary
- Ongoing: Fed officials’ commentary fallout