📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-13 18:00 CST
Gold pulls back to $4,384, WTI crude falls below $81; Ukraine strikes Russian oil refinery in Bashkortostan; Reuters poll shows 57/69 economists expect ECB rate hike to 2.50% in September; JPM raises Microsoft target to $625.
📊 Market Snapshot
| Asset | Latest | Change | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAUUSD) | $4,384.65 | -$23.77 | -0.54% ↓ |
| WTI Crude (USOIL) | $80.94 | -$0.74 | -0.91% ↓ |
Gold saw an intraday range of $85 ($4,364-$4,450), pulling back after hitting highs as sellers emerged above $4,400. WTI crude broke below $81 as geopolitical disruptions failed to support prices amid demand-side weakness.
🔥 Key News This Hour
1. Ukraine Strikes Russian Oil Refinery in Bashkortostan Ukraine’s military announced a strike on a Russian oil refinery in Bashkortostan, approximately 1,300km from the border. This marks another deep strike against Russian energy infrastructure, potentially disrupting Russia’s oil product supply chain.
2. Reuters Poll: ECB September Rate Hike Expectations Rise 57 of 69 economists expect the ECB to raise the deposit rate by 25bps to 2.50% in September (up from 49 in July’s poll). 55 see the rate reaching 2.50% by end-2026. Hike expectations have strengthened.
3. Analysts Warn: BOJ September Inaction Would Be a “Betrayal” With the yen remaining weak, analysts argue that if the Bank of Japan doesn’t hike rates in September, markets will view it as a complete betrayal, potentially triggering an accelerated yen collapse. BOJ policy expectations remain a key variable for Asian markets.
4. Iraq Exports Recover to 2M Barrels; Hormuz Strait Still Blocked Iraq’s oil marketing company reports export recovery, with Abu Dhabi’s state oil company trading unit transshipping cargo through the Hormuz Strait. Meanwhile, US-Iran talks have实质ively stalled, the strait remains blocked, and Iran continues using strait control as a bargaining chip against the US.
5. Shadow Fleet Tanker Grounds and Leaks in Omani Waters A tanker has sunk in Omani waters causing a large oil slick, with monsoon-season rough seas hampering rescue efforts. The incident heightens concerns about safety risks in gray oil transit operations.
6. JPM Raises Microsoft Target to $625, Cuts Oracle to $200 JPMorgan raised Microsoft’s price target from $550 to $625, citing AI business prospects; simultaneously cut Oracle from $210 to $200. Barclays raised Cisco’s target from $121 to $123.
7. Alibaba Open-Sources Qwen3.8-2.4T-A95B Massive MoE Model Alibaba open-sourced the ultra-large MoE model Qwen3.8-2.4T-A95B, with FlagOS community completing multi-chip adaptation simultaneously. AI open-source ecosystem competition continues to intensify.
🧭 Market Assessment
Gold pulled back from highs with notable selling pressure above $4,400, entering a profit-taking phase in the short term.
Market focus shifts to the upcoming PPI release and Jackson Hole symposium, which will test the resolve of gold bulls.
Crude oil is under pressure despite a stream of geopolitical disruptions (Ukraine striking Russian refineries, Hormuz blockade, Oman tanker leak), as demand-side weakness dominates price action.
ECB rate hike expectations strengthening combined with BOJ policy pressure puts global rate dynamics in a sensitive window.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate at the energy infrastructure level, with Ukraine demonstrating enhanced deep-strike capabilities.
AI sector continues to attract institutional favor, with Microsoft receiving a significant target upgrade and Alibaba accelerating open-source AI deployments.
⏰ Upcoming Key Events
- Aug 13 (Wed): US July PPI data (key test for gold bulls)
- Aug 14 (Thu): US weekly initial jobless claims (week ending Aug 9)
- Late August: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium (Fed policy signal window)
- September: BOJ rate decision (analysts warn inaction could trigger yen collapse)