đź“° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-13 17:00 CST

đź“Š Market Snapshot

  • Gold XAUUSD: $4,375.99 ↓ -0.74% (intraday high $4,449.84 → low $4,364.08, continued pullback from highs)
  • WTI Crude USOIL: $80.80 ↓ -1.07%
  • S&P 500 SPX: 7,748.50 ↓ -0.26% (previous session close)
  • Dow Jones DJI: 53,770.27 ↓ -0.04%
  • US Futures: S&P 500 +0.1%, Nasdaq -0.04%, Dow +0.13%
  • HK Close: Hang Seng -0.17% at 25,396, HS Tech +0.33% at 4,792
  • Onshore RMB/USD closed at 6.7451, up 5 pips from previous session

🔥 Key News This Hour

1. SMIC Q2 Earnings Beat: Revenue $3.01B, Net Profit $479M

SMIC (00981.HK) reported Q2 2026 results: revenue of $3.006B (vs $2.209B YoY), up 20% QoQ; net profit of $479M (vs $132M YoY); gross margin 25.3%, up 5.2pp QoQ. Q3 guidance: revenue expected to grow 2%-4% QoQ, gross margin 26%-28%. The company noted that AI-driven industrial demand and spillover effects will continue to benefit IC manufacturing.

2. Hua Hong Micro Q2 Revenue Hits Record $717.5M

Hua Hong (01347.HK) reported record Q2 sales revenue of $717.5M, with net profit attributable to parent of $38.6M, up 385.9% YoY. China-sourced revenue was $563.7M (78.6% of total), up 20% YoY. Q3 guidance: revenue expected at $770M-$780M, gross margin 16%-18%.

3. Changxin Tech Surpasses Tencent as China’s Largest Public Company

Changxin Tech closed with a market cap of RMB 3.54 trillion, while Tencent (00700.HK) fell 4.46% post-earnings to HKD 4 trillion (~RMB 3.44 trillion). Changxin Tech officially overtook Tencent as China’s largest listed company by market cap.

4. PBOC Signals Incremental Policy Measures, Steps Up Counter-Cyclical Support

The PBOC previewed overnight reverse repo operations on Aug 14 and Aug 17-19, and signaled it will “timely introduce pragmatic and effective incremental policies” to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments. The central bank also emphasized looking beyond bank loans to a broader view including bond financing.

5. Goldman Sachs: Fed May Hold Rates Through All of 2026

Goldman Sachs expects the Fed may keep rates unchanged throughout 2026, with inflation trending moderate. JPMorgan believes inflation will slowly retreat with no need for rate hikes. Meanwhile, a Wall Street strategist warns of US housing market crash signals reminiscent of 2008.

6. Turkey’s Central Bank Raises Year-End Inflation Forecast to 28%

Turkey’s central bank abandoned its previously below-market inflation forecast, raising the 2026 year-end expectation to 28%, closer to market consensus. Governor Karahan noted persistent uncertainty but said the worst of war-related impacts has passed.

7. Anthropic Targets $2 Trillion IPO as Early as October

Media reports suggest Anthropic could go public as early as October with a valuation of at least $2 trillion and annualized revenue potentially reaching $120B by year-end. Investors are actively positioning for this major AI-sector IPO.

8. Iran’s FM Warns US Against False Intelligence and Miscalculation

Iranian FM Araghchi warned US officials on social media about recurring intelligence failures, calling the US assessment on the Strait of Hormuz “an even more serious misjudgment.” Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has shifted from diplomatic mediation to building a multi-layered regional deterrence network.

9. Morgan Stanley Raises Cisco and Cerebras Price Targets

Morgan Stanley raised Cisco’s (CSCO.O) target from $130 to $135, and raised AI chip maker Cerebras Systems’ target from $273 to $279.

🧭 Market Assessment

SMIC’s Q2 blowout earnings—20% QoQ revenue growth and surging profitability—confirm that AI-driven demand is pulling the entire semiconductor foundry chain higher. China’s semiconductor sector momentum continues to build.

Changxin Tech overtaking Tencent as China’s largest public company marks a structural shift in market leadership—memory chip leadership replacing internet platforms as the new market cap champion, signaling a clear capital preference rotation from soft tech to hard tech.

Gold pulled back sharply from intraday highs near $4,450 to $4,376, down 0.74%, as profit-taking pressure continues to mount and near-term momentum weakens.

Crude oil remains soft with WTI below $81; geopolitical risk premiums are failing to support prices as markets grow desensitized to Middle East tensions.

The PBOC’s incremental policy rhetoric is modestly positive, but concrete scale remains to be seen. Reverse repo windows are already announced—watch for liquidity injection tempo.

Goldman’s call for no rate cuts in 2026 diverges from market consensus; if inflation cools as expected but the Fed stays put, risk asset valuations will face pressure.

Eurozone June industrial production data is imminent (17:00 Beijing time)—watch for European manufacturing health signals.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Today 17:00 CST: Eurozone June Industrial Production MoM (imminent)
  • Tonight 20:30 CST: US July PPI data (inflation trajectory focus)
  • Ongoing: Strait of Hormuz situation and Middle East geopolitical developments
  • US Pre-market: Watch PPI data impact on rate expectations