πŸ“° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-13 16:00 CST

πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Gold XAUUSD: $4,370.00 ↓ -0.87% (intraday high $4,449.84 β†’ low $4,369.08, sharp pullback)
  • WTI Crude USOIL: $81.31 ↓ -0.46%
  • Brent Crude: $86.37 ↓ -1.00% (broke below key level intraday)
  • S&P 500 SPX: 7,748.50 (pre-market data, slightly lower)
  • Dow Jones DJI: 53,770.27 (near previous close)
  • A-shares close: Shanghai & Shenzhen main net outflow Β₯44.96B
  • HK stocks: Tencent drops nearly 5%, HSI down 0.4%, Hang Seng Tech turns negative in afternoon
  • Bond futures up at midday, 30-year main contract +0.29%

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

1. Iranian Militia Claims Control of Strait of Hormuz

Iran’s Fars News Agency reported that Hossein Taeb, head of Iran’s militia organization, stated the Strait of Hormuz is “under Iran’s control and management.” Brent crude dropped below 1% following the statement.

2. Ukraine Grain Exports Plunge 76%

Ukrainian Railways reported that due to the ongoing blockade of major Black Sea ports, grain export shipments in August fell 76% year-on-year to 201,700 metric tons. On the same day, a passenger train in Odesa Oblast was hit by a drone strike, killing two crew members.

3. UOB: US Inflation May Have Peaked in Q2

Alvin Liew, senior economist at UOB Singapore, stated that US inflation likely peaked in Q2, but energy price uncertainty remains and inflation could rebound. Lower energy prices help short-term, but geopolitical risks remain a variable.

4. Foreign Investment in Japan’s Chip Industry Reaches Β₯6 Trillion

Foreign companies have invested approximately Β₯6 trillion (~$37B) in Japan’s semiconductor industry. Sony Group and TSMC’s recent announcement of an image sensor factory further expanded this figure.

5. UK Economy Withstands Energy Shock

UK Q2 GDP grew 0.4%. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research noted the economy has weathered recent energy price shocks better than many feared, though the outlook remains challenging.

6. Extreme Heat Could Cost EU €180 Billion

Triodos Bank, based in the Netherlands, assessed that this summer’s extreme heat will cost EU nations approximately €180 billion in economic losses, roughly 1% of 2025 EU GDP.

7. Turkey Central Bank Governor Speaks

Turkey’s central bank governor pledged to maintain a tight policy stance and use all available tools to fight inflation. Services inflation continues to trend down, but disinflation is slowing and domestic demand weakness is increasingly evident.

🧭 Situation Assessment

Crude oil is under pressure with both WTI and Brent declining; Iran’s claim of controlling the Strait of Hormuz has not yet triggered an oil price rebound, suggesting market pricing of geopolitical risk is temporarily muted.

Gold pulled back sharply from the intraday high of $4,449 to around $4,370, down nearly 0.87%, indicating growing profit-taking pressure at elevated levels.

The Ukraine situation continues to deteriorate, with the Black Sea port blockade causing a 76% plunge in grain exports, compounded by a drone attack on a passenger train, raising risks of further escalation.

UOB’s assessment that US inflation peaked in Q2 is noteworthy, but energy price uncertainty remains the core variable; if geopolitical conflicts push oil prices higher, inflation expectations could reignite.

A-share capital flows are weak with main net outflow near Β₯45B, and Tencent’s nearly 5% drop dragged down the Hang Seng Index; Asia-Pacific sentiment leans cautious.

At 22:00 tonight, large euro and yen forex option contracts will expire, with 16 strike prices above Β₯1B in size; watch for FX volatility.

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

  • Tonight 22:00: Euro and yen forex option expiry (16 strike prices, >Β₯1B scale)
  • US pre-market: Watch PPI data and geopolitical developments for opening sentiment
  • Ongoing monitoring: Strait of Hormuz situation, Black Sea port blockade developments