π° Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-08-13
US July CPI came in line with expectations across the board, September rate hike probability dropped to 40%. Oil prices pulled back after five consecutive gains, Strait of Hormuz situation remains uncertain. Cerebras Q2 revenue doubled but hardware sales declined, stock down 17% after hours.
π Market Snapshot
- Gold (XAUUSD): $4,408.67 (-0.01%), range-bound; SPDR Gold ETF added 3.14 tons to 1,025.81 tons
- WTI Crude Oil: $81.67 (-0.01%), pulled back after 5-day rally; traders await Hormuz Strait reopening progress
- S&P 500: 7,748.53 (-0.26%), closed slightly lower
- Dow Jones: 53,770.27 (-0.04%), essentially flat
- US Dollar Index: 100.014 (+0.19%)
π₯ Key Overnight News
US Inflation & Fed
- US July CPI in line with expectations: MoM +0.1%, YoY +3.4%; core MoM +0.2%, YoY +2.5%. Energy price declines were the main drag; housing costs continued to contribute pressure.
- CME FedWatch: 59.9% probability of holding rates unchanged in September, 40.1% for a 25bp hike.
- White House economic adviser Hassett: CPI report weakens the case for a rate hike.
- JPMorgan warned: If the Fed insists on tightening, it could trigger asset repricing in highly leveraged markets.
Geopolitics
- Iran’s IRGC threatened: If threatened again, it would strike global energy facilities and infrastructure. US-Iran ceasefire talks “made no progress”; Trump claimed full control over the Strait of Hormuz.
- US plans to withdraw all troops from Iraq by September 30, ending military presence since 2003.
- Trump administration criticized Israel for continued occupation of southern Lebanon, calling it a violation of agreement commitments.
- Colombia declared a state of economic emergency to respond to a powerful earthquake.
Tech & Corporate
- Cerebras Q2 earnings: Revenue $2.1B (+103%), cloud business quadrupled, but hardware sales declined 23%; stock fell 17% after hours.
- Apple in talks with publishers for a multi-hundred-million-dollar deal to enhance Siri AI. Commerce Secretary announced Mac mini factory in Texas to be revealed tomorrow.
- DeepSeek V4 Pro official version released, with multiple benchmarks approaching Fable 5.
- Tencent Q2 revenue: RMB 204.79 billion (+11% YoY).
- CoreWeave warned: Switching from Nvidia chips to alternatives would be difficult, requiring significant time and capital.
Other
- White House Press Secretary Levitt to leave at end of month, will become Trump’s external advisor.
- White House plans to expand AI regulation; open-source models may be included in testing framework.
π§ Market Assessment
July CPI data was “mild but not eliminated” β overall in line with expectations, but core CPI MoM exceeded headline CPI, and services inflation resilience persists, leaving the Fed’s September decision still uncertain.
Oil prices pulled back after a five-day rally; the timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz has become the core variable for short-term crude pricing, with Iran’s hawkish rhetoric adding uncertainty.
US stocks closed slightly lower after the CPI release; 85% of S&P 500 constituents beat Q2 earnings expectations, but “good news is bad news” sentiment emerged β strong performance became a reason to sell.
Gold traded in a narrow range around $4,400; SPDR ETF additions indicate institutional buyers are still accumulating, but a stronger dollar and rate hike suspense cap upside.
The Jackson Hole symposium will be the next key checkpoint, with markets awaiting Powell’s further signals on the rate path.
π Today’s Economic Calendar
- 14:00 UK Q2 GDP YoY (preliminary)
- 14:00 UK June 3-month GDP MoM
- 14:00 UK June manufacturing output MoM
- 14:00 UK June seasonally adjusted goods trade balance
No major US economic data scheduled for today; market focus shifts to Jackson Hole symposium expectations.