πŸ“° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-12 23:00 CST

πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Gold (XAUUSD): $4,419.04 (down 1.17% on the day; intraday high 4441.33 / low 4362.58)
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): $81.74 (down 0.58%)

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

1. EIA Crude Oil Inventory Surges 17.42M Barrels, Far Exceeding Expectations For the week ending Aug 7, US crude inventory +17.423M barrels (expected -140.5M), the largest weekly build since January 2023. Cushing inventory +1.611M barrels. SPR inventory -6.115M barrels, dropping to lowest since 1983. Crude exports fell to 3.058M bpd, a near 9-month low. Gasoline inventory -0.968M barrels (expected -1.199M), distillate inventory -0.01M barrels (expected -1.296M). Oil prices under pressure after the release.

2. Trump Claims Full US Control of Strait of Hormuz Trump posted that “the United States has full control of the Strait of Hormuz,” calling the naval blockade a “wall of steel” and stating Iran “has no navy, no air force” and is powerless to respond.

3. Russia’s July Oil Production Falls ~1M bpd Below OPEC+ Quota Due to near-daily Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, July crude output averaged 8.887M bpd, well below quota. Only 159 ships entered Odesa port in July, compared to nearly 400 a year ago.

4. Tencent Q2: AI Products Impact 10.5B Yuan Profit Tencent’s 2026 Q2 earnings show Hunyuan, Yuanbao, and other AI products contributed 10.5B yuan to Non-GAAP operating profit. Tencent ADR dropped nearly 4% in early trading.

5. Google Launches Pixel 11 Series and Pixel Watch 5 Google unveiled Pixel 11/11 Pro/11 Pro XL/11 Pro Fold and Pixel Watch 5 (starting at $399). Due to severe memory shortages, new phone prices increased β€” starting at $899, foldable at $1,899 ($100 more than the previous generation). GOOG down 0.5% intraday.

6. Israeli Defense Minister Orders IDF to Prepare for Long-Term Deployment Defense Minister Katz stated the IDF will continue to be stationed in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza security zones, and has instructed preparation for long-term deployment.

7. JPMorgan Warns Fed: Do Not Force Tightening JPMorgan warned that while CPI data gave the market some relief, if the Fed insists on maintaining high rates or pushing forward with QT, it could trigger asset repricing in highly leveraged markets.

8. US Launches Plan to Accelerate AI Product Trade Among Allies Market news: The US has launched a plan to accelerate trade in artificial intelligence products among allied nations.

9. China SASAC: Push for Breakthroughs in AI, Quantum and Other Root Technologies SASAC Chairman Cheng Fubo visited China Telecom, emphasizing efforts to tackle key core technologies in cloud computing, networking, AI, and quantum.

🧭 Situation Assessment

EIA crude inventory surged 17.42M barrels β€” the largest weekly build since January 2023 β€” far exceeding expectations, putting downward pressure on oil prices.

However, geopolitical risks partially offset the bearish signal β€” Trump’s high-profile claim of controlling the Strait of Hormuz and Russia’s production falling well below quota due to Ukrainian attacks keep supply-side uncertainty alive.

Gold pulled back from the intraday high of 4441 to 4419, showing profit-taking pressure above 4400, though geopolitical risk premium support remains evident.

Tencent’s AI monetization exceeded expectations β€” the 10.5B yuan profit contribution validates the AI commercialization path, but the market reacted negatively with ADR down nearly 4%, likely a “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic.

Google’s product price hikes reflect memory supply chain tightness, with hardware cost pressures transmitting from B2B to consumer-facing segments.

JPMorgan’s warning to the Fed warrants close attention β€” the risk of over-tightening in a highly leveraged environment remains a market concern.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Aug 13 (Thu): US PPI data, Initial Jobless Claims
  • Ongoing: Middle East developments, Strait of Hormuz situation