📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-12 22:00 CST

📊 Market Snapshot

Gold broke decisively above the $4,400 mark, touching $4,441 after CPI data. Crude oil slipped slightly, continuing to oscillate in the $81-83 range.

🔥 Key News This Hour

1. US July CPI In Line with Expectations, Core CPI at Lowest Since February

Core CPI (unadjusted YoY) came in at 2.5%, the smallest increase since February, matching market expectations. Fed whisperer Nick Timiraos noted that core goods prices rose 0.20% MoM, ending two consecutive months of decline — the largest monthly gain since September 2025. Housing costs rose modestly at 0.14% MoM.

Wall Street reacted positively — Edward Jones stated “inflation is not accelerating again, a step in the right direction.” Multiple analysts believe this reinforces the case for the Fed to hold rates steady in September, but Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, cautioned it’s “far from the final word” and rate hike possibilities haven’t been completely ruled out.

2. US Stocks Open Higher on CPI Night, AI Infrastructure Stocks Shine

Dow +0.33%, S&P 500 +0.49%, Nasdaq +0.9% at the open. Storage chips led gains — SanDisk +6.9%, SK Hynix +5.8%, Micron +5%+. Optical communications sector strengthened, with Lumentum +5% and Coherent +6%. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rose 9% after forecasting FY2027 revenue above expectations. Coreweave surged 22%, Nebius up 18%.

3. Tencent Q2 Earnings: AI Cloud Business WorkBuddy Shows Solid Gross Margins

Tencent CSO James Mitchell stated on the earnings call that while domestic token prices are declining, WorkBuddy’s paying user gross margins are quite solid.

4. ECB Leans Toward Approving UniCredit’s Acquisition of Commerzbank

Documents show that despite governance and integration concerns, the ECB made a preliminary ruling with “no reason to object” to UniCredit’s acquisition of Commerzbank, but expects integration to be “challenging and protracted.”

5. Geopolitics: NATO Condemns Russian Airspace Violations of Poland and Romania

The North Atlantic Council condemned Russian “violations” of Polish and Romanian airspace, with a meeting scheduled for Wednesday to discuss recent drone incidents. Ukraine reported striking the Novorossiysk port, killing 3 and wounding 24. Russia claimed it will continue striking vessels transporting Western weapons to Ukraine.

6. Maersk Warns: Low Rhine Water Levels May Halt Barge Shipping

Shipping giant Maersk warned that low water levels on the Rhine River could deteriorate to the point where barge transportation becomes impossible, which would severely impact European inland logistics.

🧭 Assessment

US July CPI data came in as expected, with core CPI easing to 2.5%, further cementing market expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady in September.

However, core goods prices turned positive at +0.2% MoM and core services ex-housing continue to rise, indicating that structural inflationary pressure persists in the “last mile.”

Gold’s breakout above $4,400 to record highs reflects the market pricing in geopolitical risk and uncertainty beneath the surface of moderate inflation relief.

US stocks opened higher, but caution is warranted — 85% of S&P 500 constituents beat Q2 earnings expectations, yet the market is showing signs of “good news exhaustion,” with diminishing room for further valuation expansion.

On the geopolitical front, escalating NATO-Russia tensions over airspace violations and Rhine water levels threatening European supply chains are risk points that require continued monitoring.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

• Aug 13 (Thu): US Initial Jobless Claims (prior: 235K)
• Aug 13 (Thu): US July PPI YoY and Core PPI (upstream inflation indicator)
• Aug 14 (Fri): US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary (Aug)